We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.87%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oMqXKRmxpn
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0847 S2: 1.0936 S1: 1.0969 R1: 1.1058 R2: 1.1115 R3: 1.1204 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.11% $SPX +0.25% $NDX +0.46% $RTY -0.38% $VIX -1.70%
  • #Brent: A break above $69.34 could push the price for a test of yesterday’s High at $71.03. Get your technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/QE5zVInhPb #OOTT https://t.co/xQhpDP0UdB
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.08% France 40: 0.03% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Q0YYr8lAED
  • There is a significant disparity in US equity performance ($DJIA, green) and 'rest of world' ($VEU, blue). The global measure ($ACWI, candle) though presents the most impressive technical picture https://t.co/yCsUxO1xnK
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: $99.1b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-17
  • The US Citi Economic Surprise Index rises to 26.1 after Industrial and Manufacturing production beat estimates $DXY https://t.co/lMQTVylxUh
  • RT @Amena__Bakr: Prince Abdelaziz is urging countries to “help themselves” by aiding aramco fight threats #OOTT
  • US Treasury Yields Update: 2-Year: 1.733% 3-Year: 1.680% 5-Year: 1.659% 7-Year: 1.744% 10-Year: 1.803% 30-Year: 2.269% $TNX
Gold Price Technical Outlook: GLD Targeting Yearly Open Support

Gold Price Technical Outlook: GLD Targeting Yearly Open Support

2019-04-04 17:00:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Gold prices are down nearly 3% from the March highs with decline taking price into near-term downtrend support ahead of tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) release. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAUUSD charts.

New to Gold Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Gold -Beginners Guide

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart- GLD Daily - XAUUSD

Technical Outlook: In my last Gold Weekly Technical Outlook we noted that prices were, “poised for a reversal off the yearly high-week close and leaves the risk lower heading into the April open. From trading standpoint, look for a reaction in price on a move towards confluence support at 1275 or 1258 – both levels of interest for possible price exhaustion.” Price registered a low at 1280 today with the decline responding to near-term confluence support at the 100-day moving average / January trendline.

Key support remains at, 1275/76, “where the objective yearly opening-range low converges on the 38.2% retracement of the 2018 advance and former pitchfork resistance.” Daily resistance steady at 1302 with a breach / close above the February trendline (bearish invalidation) needed to shift the focus back to the topside targeting 1322.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Gold 120min Price Chart (XAUUSD)

Gold Price Chart - GLD 120minute - XAUUSD

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Gold trading within the confines of a near-term descending pitchfork formation extending off the March highs with XAU/USD attempting to break below the lower parallel today in New York trade. There are a few slopes at play here, but the general threat is for a near-term recovery within the confines of this multi-day descending channel (red).

Initial resistance stands at 1293 with a topside breach above 1297 needed to challenge 1302- both areas of interest for possible exhaustion. Yearly open support steady at 1280 – weakness beyond this threshold targets a more significant confluence at 1275/76- look for a larger reaction there IF reached (are of interest for possible long-entries).

Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide

Bottom line: The immediate threat is for a near-term recovery here but ultimately, we’re looking for low final low in price while below 1302. From a trading standpoint, look for exhaustion on a rally towards the March trendline targeting the yearly open. A move lower may offer more favorable long-entries closer to the 2019 range lows. Review our latest Gold 2Q forecasts for a longer-term look at the technical picture for XAUUSD.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment - GLD Positioning - XAUUSD Price
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.31 (76.8% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are3.6% higher than yesterday and 8.0% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 6.6% lower than yesterday and 9.4% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Active Trade Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.