We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.02%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.89%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/omhI4es4tP
  • Polls have cooled off in recent days, but signs still point to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Tory party winning a commanding majority after the UK general election on December 12. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/3byP6knLku https://t.co/AGFpKbSnlE
  • Commodities Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.14% Gold: 0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/VNiYihJc0X
  • Chinese CPI AKA the Pork Price Index - Pork prices up 110% y/y, contributed 3.72ppts to the headline figure - Once pork prices top out, so to will Chinese CPI https://t.co/UvVbJn3deS
  • Forex Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.24% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.04% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/mqNJcVgapH
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.03% Wall Street: -0.03% France 40: -0.07% Germany 30: -0.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/QoE96GZYUv
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/J6TEprmLj0
  • ASX 200 May Fall on US-China Trade Impasse, UK Vote - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aus200/2019/12/10/ASX-200-May-Fall-on-US-China-Trade-Impasse-UK-Vote.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #ASX200 #tradewar #UKelection2019 https://t.co/nD02fnD9MA
  • So far this month, #USD has been underperforming against its #G10 counterparts. #NZD has been the best with +2.18% spot returns while #CAD has been the weakest with +0.37% [delayed]
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/tGyyP7sodd
XAU/USD Price Analysis: Gold Plummets into Downtrend Support

XAU/USD Price Analysis: Gold Plummets into Downtrend Support

2018-08-16 17:24:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:

Gold has plummeted more than 14% off the January highs with price registering fresh yearly lows into downtrend support this week. Today’s response to technical support threatens a near-term recovery in price with momentum extremes and shifts in trader sentiment further highlighting this risk. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter for Gold. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Gold price forecastwe highlighted the consolidation in price just above long-term support at 1204. We noted that a, “break lower from here targets subsequent objectives at the 50-line around ~1190s backed closely by a structural support confluence at 1175/80(area of interest for possible exhaustion / long-entries IF reached).” A decisive break early in the week fueled an accelerated sell-off with price registering a low at 1160 / pitchfork support before reversing sharply yesterday. Note that the low was just pips ahead of pitchfork support- so was that it?

Gold prices are poised to close lower for a sixth consecutive week- the last four instances of such an occurrence were at the December 2016 lows (down 7-weeks), the November 2015 lows, the August 2015 lows (down 7-weeks) and the July 2010 low. In each of these instances, price advanced a minimum of 9% in the following weeks. With that in mind, momentum is still deep in oversold territory and while the broader risk is still lower – IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot to look.

New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide

Gold 240min Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Price Chart 240min

Notes: A closer look at price action further highlights today’s reversal off slope support with gold testing initial resistance back at 1180. Subsequent resistance targets are eyed at 1194 and 1204- a breach above this threshold would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. A break of these lows keeps the broader focus on longer-term support at 1124/30.

Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

Bottom line: Price has responded to down-trend support and threatens a larger recovery a close above 1180 would bode well for a near-term rebound. That said, trying to call THE low is a fool’s errand and we’ll respect a break of this downslope with such a scenario likely to fuel accelerated losses towards the 2014 lows in gold prices. From a trading standpoint, reduce / close short-exposure here – be on the lookout for evidence of price exhaustion.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Spot Gold - the ratio stands at +5.92 (85.6% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are7.7% lower than yesterday and 8.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 5.6% lower than yesterday and 7.7% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
  • Note that although price registered a new low, sentiment did not stretch into a new extreme (high) – a divergence often seen at market turns.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

---

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Other Setups in Play

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.