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XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Gold Price Relief or Larger Recovery?

XAU/USD Technical Outlook: Gold Price Relief or Larger Recovery?

2018-07-05 19:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold responded to confluence support this week with prices rallying nearly 2% off the lows- so is a more significant low in place? The verdict is still out - but the technicals are clean. Here are the levels that matter for XAU/USD heading deeper into June trade. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

Gold Daily Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold Daily Price Chart

Technical Outlook: In last week’s Gold Technical Outlook, we noted a bearish bias, “sub-1266 with near-term bearish invalidation up at the objective weekly opening-range highs at 1272. A break lower from here keeps the focus lower targeting the 50% retracement ta 1244 and the broader 78.6% retracement at 1239.” XAU/USD registered a low at 1238 this week before rebounding sharply with price posting an outside-day reversal off confluence support at 1236/39. This region is defined by the 78.6% retracement of the December lows & the 78.6% retracement and converges on basic uptrend support extending off the late 2016-low as well as the median-line of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking since the April high.

The last few months have offered clean monthly opening range breaks in price and as it stands, Gold’s July range is taking shape just above support with a pending RSI resistance trigger in view. Initial resistance stands at 1260 backed by 1266- a breach there would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. A break below this key support barrier risks substantial losses for bullion with such a scenario targeting 1214 backed by the March Low-day close at 1204.

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Gold 240min Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Gold 240min Price Chart

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights an objective breach above the weekly opening-range highs and keeps the near-term focus higher into the close of the week while above 1244. Note that intraday momentum has been unable to clear 60 on the upside- a factor we’ll want to see change IF prices have indeed turned the corner. A breach above the 50-line / 1266 targets subsequent resistance objectives at 1275 and 1285- both levels of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries IF reached.

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Bottom line: Gold has responded to key weekly support and the immediate focus is on the June opening range with the broader downtrend at risk near-term while above 1236.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Spot Gold IG Trader Sentiment

Gold Trader Sentiment
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +6.67 (87.0% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are2.7% higher than yesterday and 12.1% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 2.7% lower than yesterday and 7.9% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

See how shifts in Gold retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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