Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Gold Technical Analysis: Breakout Failure Despite Syrian Conflict

Gold Technical Analysis: Breakout Failure Despite Syrian Conflict

Michael Boutros,

Talking Points

- Gold Price 200 Day Average is Still Trouble for Bulls

- Looking longer-term? Review DailyFX’s 1Q Gold Projections

- Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT (8:30ET)

Gold prices rallied for a fourth consecutive week with the precious metal up more than 0.4% to trade at 1253 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Bullion pared back a late-week rally on the heels of Friday’s NFP report with the prices failing a fourth attempt to close above the 200-day & 52week moving averages at 1258.

Chart 1: Gold Daily Timeframe (May 2016 to April 2017)

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday showed a gain of only 98K but the underlying metrics were strong with the headline unemployment rate falling to 4.5%, its lowest reading since mid-2007. The under-employment rate (U6) also saw an outsized downtick to the tune of 8.9% from 9.2%. Gold spiked on the release only to reverse sharply early in the US session.

Heading into next week, the trade remains vulnerable sub-1258 with interim support eyed at 1241- Note that a longer-term median-line rests just lower and a break below this level would suggest a more meaningful correction is underway with such a scenario targeting February 27th weekly reversal close at 1234 & the Janay highs at 1220. Critical resistance remains up at 1278/79, where the 100% etc. & the 61.8% retracement converges on long-term slope resistance.

Chart 2: Gold Speculative Sentiment Index (October 10, 2016 to April 7, 2017)

A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are net long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.36 (70.2% of traders are long) – a bearish reading.

  • Long positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 3.4% above levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and a 22.3% below levels seen last week
  • Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias.

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex contact him at

Click Here to be added to his email distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.