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Gold & Silver Price Analysis: Range-break in Sight?

Gold & Silver Price Analysis: Range-break in Sight?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold/Silver technical highlights:

  • If month ended today, gold range smallest in a very long time
  • Waiting for range-break, likely USD dependent
  • Silver remains the laggard, favored short over gold

Looking for forecasts, long-term trade ideas, and educational content? We got you covered. Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

If month ended today, gold range smallest in a very long time

If the month were to close today, September’s range at a mere 2.07% would rank as the smallest since July 1996 when it was just a shade under 2%. This of course could change between now and next Friday, but the fact we’ve gotten this far without a larger range highlights just how tight trading conditions have become.

The good news is that this type of price behavior generally leads to a period of higher volatility. We may just have to continue going on demonstrating patience for a little while longer. Exactly how much longer is anyone’s guess. Instead of playing the prediction game we’ll wait for price to move before drawing any concrete conclusions.

Levels to keep in mind: The top of the range back to August clocks in at 1214, and at the rate we are going there may be confluence with the April trend-line. This could make for a semi-explosive situation should we see confluent resistance broken, with the 1230s initially targeted. On the downside, the range isn’t broken until 1187 gives way, which may quickly have the August low coming into play.

Gold traders have lightened up on their long position; check out IG Client Sentiment for details as to how it can be used in your trading.

Gold Daily Chart (Waiting on range-break)

gold daily chart, waiting on range break

Silver remains the laggard, favored short over gold

Silver continues to remain more vulnerable to selling than gold, with resistance holding at the August low. Just as is the case with gold, we need to wait to see how things want to shake out, but silver continues to be the go-to short of the two precious metals. In the event 14.40 breaks, though, we might see short-covering give silver needed fuel to squeeze higher.

Silver Daily Chart (August low = resistance)

silver daily chart, August low = resistance

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.