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Gold & Silver Price Action to Remain Constructive, Watch the USD Chart

Gold & Silver Price Action to Remain Constructive, Watch the USD Chart

2018-08-28 09:30:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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Gold/Silver technical highlights:

  • Gold met initial target, looking for a ‘dip-trip’ opportunity
  • Silver remains the laggard for now
  • Dollar breakdown may be in store

For an in-depth intermediate-term technical and fundamental outlook, check out the Q3 Gold Forecast.

Gold met initial target, looking for a ‘dip-trip’ opportunity

Last week’s surge out of a small pullback put gold at the initial target of ~1210, a retracement of the capitulation-style sell-off that proceeded the low. With price extended off the lows risk is that weakness could set in again here soon, but it may be another dip-buying opportunity for longs should price action act constructively.

Looking for a shallow-ish dip, retracing part of the last leg up from 1183, and for price to again carve out another higher-low. Should gold decline with momentum then would-be longs may want to take a step back, especially if a decline takes out the higher-low at 1183.

The downtrend may be enticing for would-be shorts to take a crack at selling this up-move, but with gold coming out of an oversold, overly pessimistic state it seen as likely, if we are to see another lower-low, before selling can resume. We’ll note signposts pointing to this should we see them.

For now, higher prices to a minor dip (then higher) looks like the more probable scenarios. On further strength, the 1230s are seen as the next targeted zone. Especially if we see the DXY break support and lead to more downside. We’ll get to that in a minute…

Gold traders have lightened up by a small amount on their long position; check out IG Client Sentiment for details as to how it can be used in your trading.

Gold Daily Chart (looking for another higher low)

gold price daily chart, looking for another higher low

Silver remains the laggard for now

Silver is of course likely to follow the lead of gold, but to a lesser degree on the upside. Its relative weakness continues to make gold the more attractive long of these two major precious metals. Should precious metals take on a bearish tilt silver will be viewed as the ‘go-to’ short. On the downside, holding the higher-low at 14.46 is important for further strength. Looking higher, resistance clocks in at around 15.18, the low of the wedge prior to its ‘puke’ move lower.

Silver Daily Chart (lagging gold…)

Silver daily chart, lagging gold...

Dollar breakdown may be in store

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is teetering at its last line of significant support. As we discussed in yesterday’s CoT update, the quick jet higher out of a strong consolidation pattern followed by a strong reversal suggests more weakness ahead. Couple price action with a very long market and the case gets stronger. A break below support and acceleration lower may not propel precious metals sharply higher, but will almost certainly be a boon to some degree.

DXY Daily Chart (Last significant support)

DXY daily chart, last significant support on verge of breaking

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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