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Gold & Silver Price Analysis: More Rebound or More Selling?

Gold & Silver Price Analysis: More Rebound or More Selling?

2018-08-23 10:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
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Gold/Silver Price Highlights:

  • Gold reversal last week experiencing first test
  • Watching for a higher low scenario to develop
  • Silver similar situation of course, but weaker

For a longer-term view on both fundamental and technical variables, check out the DailyFX Gold Forecast

Gold reversal last week experiencing first test

Since last week’s sharp slide and reversal on Thursday we’ve been discussing the likelihood that we’ve seen the worst of the decline for now. This outlook still stands and with a pullback beginning to take shape as long as downside momentum remains in check another push higher looks to be in the cards relatively soon.

The thinking on this end is that even if gold is to continue trading lower at some point, it won’t do so until more of its oversold conditions and pessimism towards the metal is worked off. The initial target off the low remains for a full reversal of the last leg lower which resulted in the capitulation low. This implies more upside to around the 1210 mark.

The key to this view is seeing a higher low develop soon or a consolidation period in the current vicinity. A breakdown below last week’s low may not usher in another big round of selling, but would certainly be reason to step back and approach gold with a more cautious stance.

Traders remain largely long gold, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.

Gold Daily Chart (Looking for a higher low soon)

Gold daily chart, looking for a higher low soon

Silver similar situation of course, but weaker

Silver has been the leader to the downside and remains so in the near-term. Last Thursday, we saw a sharp spike lower, an event we noted as a sign of a wash-out (a large chunk of it happened in only an hour), but the case for continued strength off the low isn’t as strong as it is for gold.

As long as it holds the 14.37 low the downside will stay contained, but preference is in trading gold from the long-side given its better technical posturing. Should price digest losses and build a continuation pattern, silver would likely be the go-to from the short-side.

Silver Daily Chart (Weaker but still looking for a recovery)

Silver daily chart, weaker but still still looking for a larger recovery

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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