Gold/silver technical highlights:
- Gold breakdown has 2016 trend-line in focus
- Break below trend-line has attention towards 1230s
- Silver price and trend-line support at risk of breaking soon
For a longer-term fundamental and technical outlook on Gold or any of your favorite markets/currency pairs, check out the DailyFX 2Q Forecasts.
Gold breakdown has 2016 trend-line in focus
The brutal trading range in gold was finally snapped on Tuesday, in a powerful way. It’s an outcome we discussed as likely in Tuesday’s webinar, and should lead to lower prices. But, first, there is one line of support which could keep gold propped up, even if only for a short-while.
There is a trend-line rising up from December 2016, and while not a ‘fundamental guy’ on this end, that was when the Fed began raising rates, so it’s a key low as a connecting point for this particular trend-line. Additionally, the second point (takes two to make a trend-line) was a powerful low in December. With that said, it’s a clean trend-line and one which if downside momentum is going to pick up, needs to be broken first.
Rallies from here should face stiff opposition at or just above the 1300-mark, the bottom of the range. A bounce to that area and turn lower will offer an attractive spot for would-be shorts. Looking lower, below the trend-line there isn’t any substantial price support until the December low in the 1230s. Also, in the vicinity is a trend-line from December 2015. Given the size of the range and duration, a decline to the aforementioned support level/line is a reasonable expectation.
Traders are 4-1 long gold, check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how this acts as a contrarian indicator.
Gold Daily Chart (Range-break, only 2016 t-line stands in the way of lower prices)
Silver price and trend-line support at risk of breaking soon
Silver is currently trading just above price support running back to February and the July trend-line, but with gold’s technical posturing a break looks to be in the cards. However, before jumping the gun on shorts, support is support until it isn’t.
A confirmed break of confluent support will likely occur around the same time the 2016 trend-line in gold is broken. In the event of support breaks, silver has nothing to the left on the chart until the December low at 15.62 and a major long-term trend-line rising up from 2003.
Silver Daily Chart (Support at risk of breaking)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX