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Silver Prices Outlook: A lot Hinges on Gold Long-term Trend-line

Silver Prices Outlook: A lot Hinges on Gold Long-term Trend-line

Paul Robinson,

What’s inside:

  • Gold a big focal point for the outlook for silver prices
  • Silver pulling back from resistance, but has some trend support
  • Push above recent highs gives silver traction; gold will then have likely broken 2011 trend-line

What is behind this year’s rally in precious metals, and will it last? See our forecast for details.

When we last discussed silver prices, we were keeping an eye on gold as it neared the 2011 trend-line. It’s a big line of resistance for the yellow metal, and one traders should keep focused on in determining how things might play out with regard to silver.

So far, gold is struggling to overcome the long-term line of resistance as one would expect given it hasn’t been since November when it was last visited. For now, we will treat it as it is – a macro ‘line-in-the-sand’. At some point if gold is to break higher and have a sustained move, ideally it closes on a weekly basis above the line, not just on the daily time-frame. It’s too long-term of a trend-line to place much weight on a daily close above, as it could easily turn into a one-off event which is quickly reversed. A weekly close above would garner far more conviction as a valid breakout.

Gold: Weekly

Created with TradingView

As long as gold stays beneath we look for silver to struggle, as it too is also trading beneath resistance, although it’s of less significance. After popping above the late-Feb high on a couple of occasions in recent trade we are seeing sellers step in. The retracement has brought into play the trend-line off the March low, as well as a bit of retesting of the broken November trend-line. This could keep the short-term trend intact, but a clean move beyond recent highs will be needed to garner interest for a move towards the November high. If such a move develops it will likely be accompanied by a push in gold above the 2011 trend-line.

For now, the overall bias is fairly neutral but if certain events highlighted take shape conviction to the upside will grow.

Silver: Daily

Created with TradingView

Come check out the commodities and equity indices webinar every Tuesday with Paul for up to date analysis on precious metals. See the Webinar Calendar details.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.