Never miss a story from Paul Robinson

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Paul Robinson

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

What’s inside:

  • Fed raises 25 bps, a bit more hawkish than expected
  • Silver prices react strongly lower from resistance
  • Rejection at resistance and break of channel/bear-flag sends silver towards target

Join Paul tomorrow at 10 GMT for a weekly wrap-up and look ahead to potential trade set-ups next week. For a schedule of live events, see our webinar calendar.

Yesterday, the Fed raised rates by 25 bps as expected and provided guidance for three hikes in 2017 via the ‘dot plot’. (They anticipated four heading into this year, we got two, so we’ll see…) In any event, the overall tone was a bit more hawkish than the market expected, resulting in a strong move higher in the US dollar (DXY) and push lower in precious metals.

In the days leading up to yesterday’s late-day sell-off, silver had been stubbornly trying to trade higher, but kept finding sellers over the 17 mark we’ve been honed in on as resistance. Post-FOMC, silver turned sharply lower from resistance, putting in a bearish key reversal bar. The channel (bear-flag) we discussed on Monday was triggered in overnight trade with a breach of the lower parallel. The combination of a powerful reversal bar and break of the underside parallel is leading silver strongly lower.

We have maintained a bearish bias in silver despite its recent strength amid gold weakness and dollar strength. The target at support we had set awhile back in the 16/15.80 area looks poised to finally get thoroughly tested soon, if not broken. How price reacts around this key zone will be a big tell. Gold not long ago dropped right through a big zone of support in the 1200/1190 range without even pausing. It’s quite a bit lower now, will the same happen with silver?

Silver: Daily(4-hr)

Silver Prices Cratering (Finally)

Created with Tradingview

For educational material, see our Trading Guides.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.