Silver Prices Expected to Continue Lower, NFP Friday Coming Up
- Silver looking to make good on the bearish reversal day on Monday
- 16.18 held twice last week, a break expected to lead to a quick drop into the 16/15.80 target zone
- US jobs data due out tomorrow
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Earlier in the week we discussed Monday’s bearish reversal day in silver prices, and asked whether or not it would lead to the same outcome as last week (immediately lower prices following the bearish reversal bar on 11/22), or was there possibly a bullish scenario setting up behind the scenes on the intra-day time-frame. As per usual, we gave the benefit of the doubt to the higher time-frame, and has thus far been the correct view.
Since Monday, silver prices have weakened a bit, and while not as quickly as they did following the reversal bar on 11/22, the outcome is generally the same – lower. Yesterday's failure to push higher again helps forge the case for shorts.
Gold has been the better market for sellers, however, with major support in the 1190/1200 region having been broken last week and the metal unable to recapture. We are still looking for our comparable support zone in silver, 16/15.80. It’s taking some time to get there, but the path of least resistance suggests we will see it sooner rather than later. At this time, it would require a close back above the Monday high of 16.86 for us to consider alternative paths.
On the downside, 16.18 held on two different days last week, and has become a short-term line-in-the-sand. The double hold to almost the penny tells us that a break is likely to lead to a quick drop into our target zone very quickly thereafter.
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Data heads up: Tomorrow, the monthly US jobs data will be released at 13:30 GMT. The market is looking for a NFP figure of 175k for November, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. Also of interest will be the participation rate and signs of wage inflation via the average hourly earnings, which is currently at 2.8% YoY. The outcome of the jobs report could be the catalyst to see silver to our target. With that said, though, don't expect lasting follow-through on the jobs data with the market (via Fed fund futures) pricing in a nearly 100% chance of a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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