News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • @CVecchioFX Punjabi goat curry?
  • We are in the last half hour of the trading day and the Dow is not really living that 'buy the dip' life. $DJI 15 minute chart: https://t.co/fUEQjEnuzB
  • NZD/USD gives back the advance following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report after struggling to test the March high (0.7303). Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/wlnQkJCy5z https://t.co/noZsmwPk35
  • Fed's Bullard: - Before talk of tapering or other regulatory changes, we need to be solidly out of the pandemic - Some people's motivation to return to work is influenced by benefits
  • Fed's Bullard: - It's not a smart idea to ask low-wage workers to return - It's too early to predict significant employment growth, the pandemic isn't over yet
  • Fed's Bullard: - Some inflation, not all, is transitory - I think inflation would be 2.5% to 3% in 2021, and 2.5% in 2022 - I think we are going to see higher inflation through 2021
  • White House: - We take the possibility of inflation very seriously - According to economists, there may be a transitory impact
  • @JohnKicklighter doesnt/didn’t Zuck personally hunt/kill all the meat he eats/ate? Not a good historical precedent for that goat
  • That's a stretch. Read a story that Mark Zuckerberg named his goat 'Bitcoin' and the coin's traders are treating that as an endorsement...
  • US Dollar Index (DXY) failed last week at important resistance. Burst lower puts it in position to sail towards 2018 lows. Get your $USD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/MvfsVis9AA https://t.co/GUpgmeFOdo
Silver Price Action First and Foremost, USD Secondary

Silver Price Action First and Foremost, USD Secondary

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • Silver remains capped by resistance
  • Will we see a redux of October and how silver and the dollar played out?
  • Focus is on silver first, dollar second; short-term trend-line becoming a focal point for execution

You can receive Paul's analysis directly via email by signing up here.

The price of silver remains contained in the low 17s, respecting resistance between June and October. As we said the other day, if silver continues to hang out below resistance, with another round of selling, there isn’t anything to the left on the chart until around the 16 level.

Even if the June/October resistance level is to be reclaimed, there is overhead supply to be cleared before silver can gain traction. The bottom and top-side of the October triangle in the 17.30/90 vicinity lies in the way.

A question some might be asking, are we in for a redux of October in respect to how the dollar and silver play with another? During that period, after plunging nearly $3, silver went on to form a triangle below resistance while the dollar kept on rallying. The eventual outcome was an upward break in silver and drop in the dollar.

The 21-day correlation between silver and the dollar is back below -80%, a strong reading. It could stay this way for an extended period of time as it often times does, or the relationship between the precious metal and currency could come back in line without warning. Correlations, in our view, are best viewed secondary given this on-and-off relationship. Through much of October while the dollar rallied sharply, silver was sharply unchanged. All it took was a solid dollar sell-off to spur silver out of the multi-week triangle. Which brings up a point worth making: One didn’t even need to know what the correlation was with the triangle in place to provide guidance (go with the break).

With that said, our focus is on silver first, dollar second. If we see bottoming-type price action in silver and the dollar continues to rally, perhaps we will be in for another replay of the period we just went through. Conversely, the dollar (DXY) could decline from over the 100 level (13-yr highs) while silver sits dead-in-the-water. This would suggest market participants don’t care about the dollar. In any event, we will run with what silver is telling us first and take the relative performance into consideration on a secondary basis.

Silver/USD: Daily

Silver Price Action First and Foremost, USD Secondary

Created with Tradingview

Looking at silver in a bubble, a little closer. There is a short-term trend-line forming off the 11/14 low, most visible on intra-day time-frames. This development comes as price struggles at daily resistance. For those looking to establish a short position, waiting for a break of the trend-line is a prudent approach. The more touches the trend-line receives, the more important it will become. A break right now wouldn’t be as meaningful as a breach following a few more inflection points. As long as the trend-line holds a series of higher lows will continue to form, also giving us reason not to be aggressively short until a break occurs. For those looking for recent lows to hold, keeping this trend-line in mind will be helpful in working a long-biased game-plan.

All-in-all, we maintain our outlook that current price action is corrective in nature and at some point sellers will show up again. The eventual target on further weakness remains the 16/15.80 area. As always, it will all boil down to execution. The groundwork is being laid.

Silver: 60-minute

Silver Price Action First and Foremost, USD Secondary

Created with Tradingview

Check out our Forecasts and Trading Guides designed for traders of all experience levels.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

To receive Paul’s analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES