Talking Points
- Silver traded higher today as the USD was on the back foot.
- The FOMC rate decision and the Bank of Japan rate meeting sent the USD lower and silver prices higher.
- U.S. 1Q GDP and Jobless Claims on deck.
Precious metals traded higher today as the USD was on the back foot following the FOMC rate decision and the Bank of Japan rate meeting.
Technically, the trend of silver prices was bullish above the April 25 low of $16.82, as the April 25 low was higher than the preceding swing low of $16.13 (formed on April 18). The first support level is yesterday’s low of $17.09. Below the April 25 low of $16.82, the psychological level of $16.50 could turn into support.
The fall in USD explains why silver prices are higher. On the day and at the time of writing, the Buck was lower against all of its G10 peers. The Japanese Yen was the biggest winner, up by 3.14% on the day and followed by the Kiwi dollar (up by 1.68%).
The trigger behind the rise of the Yen was inaction by the Bank of Japan. Bloomberg News reported that a small majority of economists expected some type of action at the BoJ rate meeting. Instead (and to the surprise of the markets) as seen in the decline of USDJPY, the central bank left their monetary policy unchanged. The Kiwi Dollar (the second best performer of the day) rose as the RBNZ also left its rates unchanged.
At yesterday’s FOMC rate decision the Fed removed the reference to global risks in its policy statement. They also left the door open for a June rate hike. This sent the USD and U.S. 2-year-swap higher, however, after just a few minutes both the Dollar and the interest rates had returned to their initial levels. Please read “FOMC Holds Rates at April Meeting, Focus Moves to June” for more on the Fed.
As the U.S. trading session starts, focus shifts to U.S. GDP and Jobless claims. A Bloomberg Survey expects the first quarter GDP to rise by 0.7% annualized QoQ and for Jobless Claims to rise from 247K to 259K. Read more about it here: EUR/USD to Eye Topside Targets on Disappointing 1Q U.S. GDP Report.
Our forecasts for Q2 2016 are now live on the site. Download them for free.
Silver Price | CFD: XAG/USD
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
