Silver Prices Outperform Gold

2016-04-21 11:59:00

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

Silver prices gained on a general rise in commodity prices and relative positioning between gold and silver.
Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook are on deck.

Silver prices were up by 3.7 percent in today’s trading. The business press cites a general rise in commodity prices and the Silver/Gold ratio as the reason for today’s stronger silver prices.

As an example, crude oil prices rose to a new 2016 high over the last 24 hours. The boost to crude oil prices was motivated by a smaller than expected crude oil inventory build; +2.08 million barrels vs. the +2.75 million expected (Thomson Reuter’s survey).

Yesterday, we highlighted how gold prices vs. silver had risen to 2008 highs and then reverted lower after Currency Strategist Christopher Vecchio first pointed out this trend on Tuesday, April 19 in his article, “Silver-Gold Relationship Evolving in a Bad Way for US Dollar.” Overnight, this trend of the Gold/Silver ratio moving lower continued.

In today’s session, the focus reverts to U.S. data. Economists expect Jobless claims to have bounced back from their 1973 lows of 253k to 265k. Last week’s figure was very low and implies a very strong U.S. labor market, however, some economists warn that this year’s Easter break may have distorted the data. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, which has risen strongly over the last months, is expected to decline to 9 from 12.4. Overall, the index may have found a low by the end of the year, a low that has been followed by lows in other regional PMIs.

Silver's trend-defining low is yesterday’s low of $16.85, and the trend is bullish as the $16.85 low is higher than the preceding swing low of $16.13, a low which was formed on Monday. A support level beyond yesterday’s low of $16.85 is the psychological level of $16.50.

Near-term resistance is the current daily high of $17.62, which is followed by the May 2015 high of $17.80 and the psychological level of $18.00.

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Silver Price | FXCM: XAG/USD