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Talking Points

  • Silver prices may try to carve out a low at current levels as the risk/reward ratio has tilted to be in favor of bullish traders.
  • The short-term trend is bullish above the March 3 low of $14.87.
  • U.S. Wholesale inventories are on tap in the U.S. session and may spark some volatility in silver prices.

Silver prices have now corrected 50% of their gains from the February 29 low of $14.6 and as the short-term trend defining level for most traders is the February 29 low of $14.6, or in my case the March 3 low of $14.87, the risk/reward ratio and trend is now favoring bullish positions.

In other words, it would not surprise me if silver prices try to carve out a low at current levels over the next few days. The exact range I am looking at is the $15.09 to $15.36 range, which are Fibonacci retracement levels. Please see the chart below.

Following a potential failure to bounce at current levels and a breach to the March 3 low of $14.87, there is a heightened risk that price may turn bearish and therefore trade lower. If this occurs, I would expect bullish traders to head for the exit.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories

In the afternoon, U.S. Wholesale inventories are expected to decline by -0.2% MoM and may move silver.

An interesting statistic published in the same report is that of Merchant Wholesale Sales, which measures sales and its YoY change to give us a hint of where the economy may be heading. The last reading showed sales contracting by 4.5% YoY and an even lower reading today may boost silver, as it suggests that the economy may be slowing further. A less severe contraction than 4.5% YoY may suggest an outcome to the opposite effect.

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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