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Talking Points

  • The January 25 high of $15.34 is capping price and silver may reach last week’s low of $14.63.
  • Several macro data reports are on deck today, with the most crucial one being the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing index.

Silver prices may reach last week’s low of $14.63 as long as price is being capped by the January 25 high of $15.34. If traders manage to overtake the January 25 high of $15.34, the short-term trend could turn bullish and silver may reach the January 24 high of $15.60.

For now though, the trend is bearish below the $15.34 high and it’s fair to expect lower prices over the coming days ahead. On a break to last week’s low of $14.36, silver prices may reach the psychological level of $14.50.

The lower prices in silver over the last few days have been motivated by rising stock markets lowering the demand for haven assets like silver along with gains in the U.S. Dollar.

If stock markets and the USD keep on gaining, something which will be tested today given the release of the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing index figures, silver is likely to remain under pressure.

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing

Today’s most crucial economic indicator is the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing index. It’s important as it gives us an idea of how U.S. personal consumption may develop within six to seven months down the road (correlation of 0.42 at seven months lead). Economists also use it and its subcomponents to estimate NFP and other key variables. It’s therefore watched by many.

A stronger than expected reading (in this case the 53.1 projected by a Bloomberg news survey) may soften silver prices as stocks and the Dollar rise, while silver may get a boost if the indicator fails to meet expectations.

U.S. Jobless claims, Markit Services PMI, Factory and Durable Goods orders are also on tap, but less crucial. For further expected outcomes, please see our economic calendar.

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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