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Talking Points

  • Traders are unwilling to take sides and price trades sideways between this week’s low of $14.95 and this week’s high of $15.60.
  • This week’s macro data has been soft, but traders are not ready to lift price higher.
  • Data on tap: Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders.

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

When neither bearish nor bullish traders make money trading, it’s time to give that market a break. This is the case for silver, which generated a sell signal on Monday which subsequently failed, and then triggered a buy signal on Wednesday, which also turned out to be a loser.

Price is now trading sideways and flanked by this week’s low of $14.95 and this week’s high of $15.60. A break to this range is needed to better assess what’s next for silver. On a breach to the weekly high, price may reach the monthly high of $15.97, while a break to $14.95 may trigger a slide to the February low of $14.67.

The Macroeconomic Outlook is Short-term Bullish

From a macroeconomic perspective, the data reports of this week have been soft, with the latest disappointing report being yesterday’s U.S. Markit PMI Service, declining to 49.8 vs. the expected outcome of 53.5 (Bloomberg news survey). This may suggest a higher price for silver on haven flows, but traders have so far not been interested in boosting it.

This afternoon, the focus will be on Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders. The former is expected to rise from 262K to 270K (Bloomberg news projection), while the latter is expected to rise by 2.5% MoM. Better than expected figures may send silver prices lower as they may dampen safe haven flows and lift U.S. interest rates, while worse than expected outcomes may have the opposite effect.

Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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