Silver Should Be Trading At $14.93 According to Gold
The technical outlook is little changed for silver.
The overall trend is bullish above the January 22 low of $14 and the next resistance level and target for bullish traders is the December 7 high of $14.58, a target silver should be able to reach so long as its correlation to the price of gold holds up. My latest fair-value-estimate suggests that silver should be trading at $14.93 on gold prices trading at or above $1124.5.
Traders projecting higher prices and expecting the January 22 low of $14 to hold as a support are probably accumulating silver at current prices, as the risk/reward ratio currently favors long positions. The potential loss is 25 cents vs. a potential gain of 33 cents if the price reaches the December high of 14.58, and 65 cents if the price reaches 14.90 over the coming weeks.
Recent Macro Data Is Less favorable
Yesterday, U.S. Core PCE rose by 1.4% YoY, from 1.3%, while headline PCE climbed to 0.6% YoY from 0.4%. This is encouraging news for the Fed’s case for raising rates and represents the Dollar being bullish and silver being bearish. Also in the U.S., the ISM report for January rose to 48.2 from 48, with the sub-components showing tentative signs of stabilization for the headline index over the coming months. New orders increased to 51.5 from 48.8, while Customer inventories remained unchanged at 51.5.This may reduce the need for haven assets such as silver and gold, if the ISM does indeed head higher over the coming months, rebounding from low levels.
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Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
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