Talking Points
- The latest bounce in silver is part of a general rise in commodities and may also be due to positioning ahead of today's FOMC meeting
- The short-term trend for silver is bullish as long as prices trade above the January 25 low of $14, and it may rise to $15 provided the Fed projects a dovish bias at today's FOMC meeting
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Silver prices confirmed a breakout by closing above the $14.40 level and looks to be on its way to the December 7 high of $14.63. From a long run perspective, the momentum might be enough to lift price to the $14.90-$15.00 range, which constitutes a 50% correction of the decline from the October 2005 high of $16.17. Our fair-value model based on gold prices projects further gains and that silver prices should be trading at $14.84 as long as gold prices remain at or above $1117 per ounce.
The short-term trend for silver is bullish as long as prices trade above the January 25 low of $14. And traders will probably use pull back to the 14.20 - 14:40 range as an opportunity to add to their long exposure (we turned bullish yesterday, ahead of the breakout).
Gain Is Due to General Rise in Commodities
The latest bounce in silver is part of a general rise commodities, and may be on the notion of commodity markets trading at too low a level in relation to the underlying world economy.
The rise in metals may also be due to positioning ahead of today's FOMC meeting. If the Federal Reserve sends a dovish signal, for example by stating that their aim is to keep rates low for a longer period of time, silver may add to its gains.
On the other hand if the Fed insists on raising interest rates more than 25 basis points over the next 12 months, it may hamper the bullish trend. We say 25 basis points, as it is this amount the market has priced in via overnight-index-swaps.
The reason for not highlighting stock markets and safe-haven buying as a reason behind the rise in silver prices is because the correlation to the stock markets is currently at low levels.
Losing Money Trading? This Might Be Why
Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD
Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano
--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00
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