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Silver Prices Trade Higher ahead of U.S. Inflation Data

Silver Prices Trade Higher ahead of U.S. Inflation Data

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Silver prices are slowly edging higher as gold prices break Friday’s high of $1097. This may lift silver to the upper end of its $13.61 to $14.40 range. Range traders would use such a rally to book profits on long positions bought near the $13.75 support level.

I have highlighted recently that some range traders might short near $14.25 with stops above $14.40. Yet caution is warranted, because if it was down to gold prices exclusively, a regression model (based on daily prices over the last 6 months) suggests that silver should be trading at $14.53 (currently at $14.10). In other words, silver will be breaking its downward trend if it breaks the $14.40 level.

On a break to $14.40 prices may reach the December 7 2015 high of $14.62.

Bearish traders will wait for a break to the December low of $13.61 and then aim for $13.48 and $13.18, while the aggressive bearish traders may still short near $14.25 with stops above $14.40.

U.S. CPI is on tap today and this may trigger a move in silver. Higher than expected outcomes may raise expectations of Fed rate hikes. According to Overnight-index-swaps the market is only expecting a rise of 25bps over the next 12 months. I see this as a tad low. Headline inflation is expected to print 0.8% MoM, while core is expected to print 2.1% YoY (BBG).

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Silver Prices | FXCM: XAG/USD

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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