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  • 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (JAN) Actual: 92 Expected: 94 Previous: 95 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
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  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (FEB) due at 07:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -7.9 Previous: -7.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-27
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  • Outside of GameStop and other activist driven stocks, risk markets seem to be struggling for direction. Maybe the Dow and EURUSD will draw direction from the growth forecasts, the FOMC rate decision and key earnings (like TSLA and AAPL). My analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/01/27/Dow-and-Dollar-Steel-for-FOMC-Top-Earnings-and-Growth-Fight-Against-Speculative-Control.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/SqdH9JM6Pu
Silver Price: Safe-Haven Flows Get Hammered

Silver Price: Safe-Haven Flows Get Hammered

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst
  • Silver remains bearish, despite the plunge in stock markets
  • As long as the $14.40 is capping price, I would expect silver prices to reach $13.65 and $13.18.

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Today, silver prices rallied briefly, breaching the post-Christmas holiday highs of $14.05 before plunging back to its range. The trigger behind the surge in price was equity markets falling on the soft U.S. ISM (48.2 vs. an expected 49) and a poor Chinese Caixin Mfg. PMI (printing 48.2 vs. the 48.9 estimated).

This boosted demand for silver and gold on safe-haven flows. However, for now it appears that this was nothing more than a short-lived rally as the demand for U.S. Dollars was higher than for sliver. We note that the USD gained vs. the Euro, GBP, CHF, AUD and NZD.

From a longer-term technical point of view however, the outlook for silver prices has not changed. The overall trend remains bearish below the December 28 high of $14.40. A break to this level is needed for bullish traders to take control of the price. Until this happens, it may still reach the December low of $13.61, and eventually break this level, triggering a decline to the July 27 2009 low of $13.18.

Looking at the haven flows, they may re-emerge in the days ahead if the S&P 500 manages to successfully break its December 14 low of 1993. For now such a move would make sense given that U.S. ISM was soft and points towards a further slowdown for the U.S. economy. However, for now it appears that investors prefer USD over silver, hence, a surge in risk-aversion may not boost silver prices.

Silver / XAGUSD

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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