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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Extended with Levels to Watch

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Extended with Levels to Watch

Paul Robinson,
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Crude Oil Technical Highlights:

  • Trading well above major long-term resistance
  • Watching levels that lie just ahead from years prior
  • Outlook remains generally bullish until proven otherwise
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Energy has been on a tear, with crude oil having recently broke above a major long-term threshold. Right around 77 was big resistance from a decade ago, a level we discussed as being pivotal for the broader outlook on oil.

Now that it is well above that level we need to turn our attention to resistance levels that lie ahead. The levels in question aren’t the most significant types of levels, but nevertheless should be respected. This is where watching price action as levels get tested becomes so important.

If momentum doesn’t slow then it indicates that the level isn’t important, but if volatility (i.e. reversal candles) occurs then we will want to heeds its warnings.

From 2012 to 2014 there are lows at 84, 85.90, and 91.24 to watch. Around the 85 also lies a top-side trend-line running over from March. With the price of oil extended we may see a bit of a reaction at one of these upcoming levels even if it is only a minor one that is erased with even higher levels.

Generally the outlook remains bullish, but appears risky for new longs to chase here. For existing longs, implementing some type of trailing stop strategy may be a prudent move. To flip the script from bullish to bearish there is some work to be done. On a retracement the first threshold to watch is the trend-line rising up from August, and then after that the big long-term level at 77.

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Crude Oil (CL1!) Weekly Chart

crude oil weekly chart

Crude Oil (CL1!) Daily Chart

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WTI Crude Oil Chart by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.