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Oil Price Technical Forecast: Oil Seven Week Rally at Seven Year High

Oil Price Technical Forecast: Oil Seven Week Rally at Seven Year High

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

  • Crude Oil updated technical trade levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTI rally marks seventh consecutive week- constructive above 74.94, resistance 82.84, 90.68 (key)
  • New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Oil-Beginners Guide
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Oil prices soared more than 5.5% this week with WTI breaking to fresh seven-year highs to mark a seventh consecutive weekly advance. The breakout keeps the broader focus higher in Oil and while the immediate rally may be vulnerable in the days ahead, the trade remains constructive while above a major inflection zone in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price technical setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Crude Oil Price Forecast noted that WTI was approaching resistance at the “61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July decline at 71.13- a breach / close above this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards critical resistance at the 2011 & 2012 lows / 100% extension at 74.94-77.37.” Prices ripped through this threshold into the October open with the rally now attempting a seventh consecutive weekly advance- we’ve seen this occurrence twice over the past two years. The first instance (2019) capped the yearly highs while the following year saw the rally pause for two weeks before resuming higher. The record prior to theses instances was set in 2015 when a nine-week rally capped the yearly advance. While the immediate advance may be vulnerable up here in the weeks ahead and despite these historical tendencies, the broader technical outlook remains constructive while above this critical threshold.

A weekly close at these levels would keep the long-bias viable with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at the 2011 low-week close at 82.84 backed by the upper parallel of the multi-year pitchfork we’ve been tracking off the 2016 and 2020 lows (currently ~88), and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 decline at 90.68- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Monthly open support rests at 75.10 backed by near-term bullish invalidation at 74.94- a break below this threshold would threaten a larger correction towards the key inflection zone at 65.92-66.57.

Bottom line: The oil price breakout is maturing here and while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead. From at trading standpoint, losses should be capped by 74.94 IF price is heading higher – look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards the upper parallel / channel resistance. I’ll publish an updated Crude Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term WTI technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - USOil Retail Positioning - CL Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short crude oil - the ratio stands at -2.07 (32.61% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading
  • Long positions are 22.62% lower than yesterday and 3.81% higher from last week
  • Short positions are27.39% higher than yesterday and 26.22% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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