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Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Trading at Resistance, Make or Break?

Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Trading at Resistance, Make or Break?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

WTI Crude Oil Technical Outlook

  • Crude oil trading at confluent resistance
  • May break out here soon the way price action is behaving

Crude Oil Technical Outlook: Trading at Resistance, Make or Break?

WTI crude oil is trading at a crossroad of resistance that has been keeping a lid on price action as of late. Resistance arrives by way of an upper parallel to a developing channel/bull-flag and the underside of a trend-line rising up from the March low.

The way oil is holding up against resistance suggests that it will make an attempt to trade higher soon. To do so it will need to post a daily closing candle above 70.61, the high of the congestion phase. This will have WTI trading in open space, with the next level of eyed resistance at 74.23, a late July swing high. This level is followed by the cycle high at 76.98.

On the flip-side, if oil can’t get into gear and starts to fail, the level to watch is 67.12, the low of the nearly two-week long consolidation. This would keep the intermediate-term trend pointed lower, but won’t necessarily mean the outlook is strongly bearish.

After the rally from negative territory last year, the broader trend is still up, and thus the backing-and-filling we are seeing since the July high may be a corrective phase. If this is the case, then if a decline develops ideally we see a higher low from the August low at 61.74. A breakout would still need to eventually take shape above 70.61 to validate the corrective, bull market scenario.

For now, in monitoring the short-term, the thinking is to watch for a breakout above 70.61 for would-be longs, and for those looking to establish short exposure, waiting for the congestion period to breakdown below 67.12 may be the most prudent way to play.

Crude Oil (CL1!) Daily Chart

Crude oil daily chart

WTI Crude Oil Chart by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.