News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD, $AUDUSD Near-term Technical Setups - https://t.co/HOOdZz6IIF https://t.co/DRiqmlKXHg
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Gold: -0.91% Silver: -3.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/u41nMRKgOj
  • A pretty clean break from $SPX and other risk-sensitive assets are following along. As Hans Landa said in Inglorious Basterds: "Ooooooo. That's a Bingo" https://t.co/fLqS3kL8li
  • US Dollar Index reaches a multi-month high as markets strike a risk-off tone $USD $DXY https://t.co/m8AdjHztFX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.13%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 70.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GgwsfrU5lz
  • EUR/USD sheds 40-pips in a matter of minutes as the US Dollar strengthens broadly. Get your $EURUSD market update from @RichDvorakFX here:https://t.co/wIlo9Tbp7A https://t.co/It5iIFhMmL
  • Well, I don't think Powell will temper interest/concern around central banks having to pullback in the foreseeable future. Both 'taper tantrum' and 'operation twist' search interest charging higher: https://t.co/NK17S328F3
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.86% FTSE 100: -1.20% France 40: -1.27% Wall Street: -2.32% US 500: -2.53% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/KjNr7ongtX
  • Nasdaq now down over 3% today, confirming 10% correction territory. $QQQ
  • $USDCHF has continued to strength today, now above the 0.9280 level, trading around the highs hit in late September. The pair has performed strongly since mid February as US rates have continued higher, rising from 0.8900 by nearly 400 pips to its current levels. $USD $CHF https://t.co/qrHY8Sy2sf
Oil Price Outlook: Crude Breakout Accelerates- Resistance Lies Ahead

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Breakout Accelerates- Resistance Lies Ahead

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

  • Crude Oil updated technical trade levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTI breakout extends into February open– risk for inflection multi-year resistance
  • New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Oil-Beginners Guide
Advertisement

Oil prices have surged more than 7.2% since the start of February with WTI breaking to fresh yearly highs to trade at 55.89 in early US trade on Wednesday. While the recent price breakout keeps the outlook weighted to the topside, the rally is now approaching multi-year slope resistance and may be vulnerable heading into this zone near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Mar 08
( 13:03 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Oil Price Outlook we noted that the WTI price breakout was testing the first major resistance confluence around ~50.58and to, “look for downside exhaustion ahead of the median-line on pullbacks IF price is indeed heading higher with a weekly close above the upper parallel needed to keep the bulls in control.” The advance accelerated in the following days with a weekly close above fueling a month-long rally that has already taken out initial resistance objectives at the 2016 high at 54.48.

A three-day advance now takes oil into the 2018 trendline and we’re looking for possible inflection here. Initial support now back at 54.48 backed by former pitchfork resistance / monthly open support at ~52.16 – a break / close below this threshold would risk a larger correction towards 50.58 with key support / broader bullish invalidation at the yearly open / yearly lows at 47.16-48.18. A topside breach from here keeps the focus on key resistance at 59.16-60.66- a region defined by the 2020 high-week reversal close and the 61.8% extension of the April rally. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest Crude Oil Forecast
Get My Guide

Bottom line: The crude oil rally is approaching multi-year slope resistance just higher and the immediate focus is on a reaction into the 2018 trendline. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- pullbacks should be limited to the monthly open IF price is indeed heading higher with a close above this trendline keeping the focus on key resistance into the 2008 trendline.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short crude oil - the ratio stands at -1.52 (39.7% of traders are long) – typically bullish reading
  • Long positions are 10.13% higher than yesterday and 15.77% lower from last week
  • Short positions are8.81% higher than yesterday and 24.34% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Oil - US Crude BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -34% 31% 0%
Weekly -22% 14% 0%
Learn how shifts in Oil retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

---

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Learn how to Trade with Confidence - Free Trading Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES