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Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Rebounds off Support at Trend Extremes

Crude Oil Price Outlook: WTI Rebounds off Support at Trend Extremes

2020-03-03 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Crude Oil Technical Price Outlook: WTI Weekly Trade Levels

  • Crude Oil updated technical trade levels – Weekly Chart
  • WTI rally responds to key confluence support zone – bears at risk while above 45.45
  • New to Oil Trading? Get started with this Free How to Trade Oil-Beginners Guide

Oil prices collapsed nearly 33% off the yearly January highs with crude rebounding off weekly confluence support into the March open. We’re looking for inflection off this zone with the immediate short-bias at risk while above 45.45. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the oil price weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this crude oil price setup and more.

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Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Weekly

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Weekly - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Notes: In my previous OilWeekly Price Outlook we noted that Crude was, “testing a major confluence resistance zone at 63.68-64.40 – the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below this threshold..” WTI briefly registered a high at 65.62 the following week before reversing sharply with oil falling more than 21% off the January high. The decline takes price into a key support zone at 45.23/45- a region defined by the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2016 advance and the 61.8% extension of the decline off the 2018 high- price close last week at 45.32. Note that a sliding parallel (red) of the dominant slope extending off the June lows caught the swing lows on the last two intraweek attempts lower.

The immediate short-bias is vulnerable while above this threshold with initial resistance seen at the median-line (currently ~48) backed by 50.59. Medium-term bearish invalidation now lowered to 54.54. A close below the 2017 low-week close at 43.09 would be needed to mark resumption with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at the August 2016 lows / 25% parallel around 39.30s with key confluence support at 36.91-37.45- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: Crude oil prices are testing a major confluence support zone at 45.23/45 – the immediate decline may be vulnerable while above this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Look for topside exhaustion ahead of 50.59 IF oil prices are indeed heading lower on this stretch with a close below parallel support needed to mark resumption. I’ll publish an updated Oil Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Trade Outlook - USOil Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +5.06 (83.51% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 4.38% higher than yesterday and 6.68% higher from last week
  • Short positions are4.50% higher than yesterday and 29.81% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Oil - US Crude trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% -12% -1%
Weekly -26% 42% -17%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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