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Crude Oil Technical Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Scenarios to Watch

Crude Oil Technical Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Scenarios to Watch

2019-11-12 12:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

Crude Oil Technical Outlook:

  • WTI crude oil stuck in channel/bear-flag, battling the 200-day MA
  • Brent also bear-flagging, has 200-day/t-line above

For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical viewpoint, check out the Crude Oil Forecast.

WTI crude oil stuck in channel/bear-flag, battling the 200-day MA

WTI crude oil isn’t positioned much differently than it was a week ago, pressed up against the top of the channel and 200-day MA. It’s been a grind in oil since the beginning of October, but like all choppy periods of trading they do come to an end with a solid directional move as the result.

The period of back-and-forth is forming a channel resembles that of a bear-flag given the strong down-move prior to its development. But before the pattern can be confirmed as a bearish period of digestion, we need to see a break of the lower parallel.

In the event it does, the 50-line will quickly come into play along with the potential to see the 2016 trend-line reached, a target that has admittedly been in mind for several months. If it gets there it will have been a very long and winding road to do-so.

In the event that oil stays within the confines of the channel and can break above the 200-day, there is a chance at some point we see a pickup in buying pressure that takes the commodity up to the October 2018 trend-line, nearing the Saudi oil-spike in September.

The bottom line is that we need to be prepared for oil to make a move soon, but be patient in doing so as further confirmation is needed to clarify the picture.

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart (bear-flag/channel, 200-day)

Crude Oil Technical Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Scenarios to Watch

WTI Oil Chart by TradingView

Brent also bear-flagging, has 200-day/t-line above

Brent is of course looking like its sibling contract, but broadly speaking it has a more bearish tilt to it with the chart over the last few months leaning lower to a slightly larger degree than WTI. Illustrating this, is the close proximity of the 2016 trend-line. To reach it wouldn’t even require a break below the lows in August and October.

As is the case with WTI, a break of the lower parallel from the October low is needed to get Brent running downhill, while a continued push is set to have price testing top-side trend thresholds. The 200-day and October 2018 trend-line like up just under 65.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (bear-flag break or stay in channel?)

Crude Oil Technical Analysis - Bullish & Bearish Scenarios to Watch

Brent Crude Oil Chart by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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