We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The New York #forex session is one of the most liquid #forextrading sessions. Want to learn to trade in this session? Read up! https://t.co/qDNTKLVhFa https://t.co/tZetcS5Ev7
  • #DidYouKnow a #Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/roWhofPtMb
  • $USD price action has edged roughly 1.5% lower since touching year-to-date highs earlier this month and the recent stretch of weakness jeopardizes the US Dollar’s bullish trend. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/10/13/usd-price-us-dollar-technical-forecast-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-usdcad.html
  • RT @C_Barraud: 🇮🇳 World Bank Says #India Faces Severe Slowdown, Cuts GDP Forecast - Bloomberg *India’s gross domestic product growth seen a…
  • Why are Bollinger Bands @bbands and #forex such a good combo? Because forex is a form of pairs trading, each transaction involving a long position in one currency and a short position in another. Find out how you can use it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZuN2xl5GIw https://t.co/G0ByyTvBnT
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Bf4KXjRYzR
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within the financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy within a trading system can enhance a trader’s market analysis technique. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/4mSc3NB4qM
  • Currency markets may be battered by breakneck volatility if a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a collapse in the fragile market for collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/KfjjtaXs7b https://t.co/FbNC12Nq6A
  • The $GBP will be in for a volatile week ahead of critical talks at the EU-UK summit as the October 31 deadline approaches. Will policymakers be able to avoid a no-deal #Brexit? Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/r7eAf885V6 https://t.co/sqqRqnrPYa
  • Philip Shaw, Chief Economist at @Investec walks us through his views on the continuing #Brexit saga. What are the latest implications on the $GBP and Euro? Find out on Global Markets Decoded #podcast here: https://t.co/x0JW5M7L8U https://t.co/D0LIwdXJ3x
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Institutions, Trade War Threats Drop WTI

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Institutions, Trade War Threats Drop WTI

2018-08-08 20:30:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Crude Oil Price Forecast Key Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Demand concerns are not going away. Institutions per the CFTC are reeling in their bullish exposure, and Wednesdays nearly 4% drop will likely continue the trend of position squaring. The EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report showed a smaller draw than expected and the front-month WTI contract closed at the lowest level in six weeks on Wednesday.
  • Crude oil may see volatility and not the bullish kind that has preceded in 2018 after a quiet open in August and the end of US driving season as the ever-present dispute of US and China in the Trade War puts downward pressure on the commodity bloc as a whole.
  • WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis Strategy: Crude oil faces big levels at $66/63, and a break below favors further selling as extreme positioning and middle east tensions were unable to lift crude much beyond $70.
  • Access our latest Crude Forecast for Q3 2018 here


  • Resistance: $69.98– July 30 high
  • Spot: $65.99/bbl
  • Support: $63.41– June low preceding June 18-July 3 breakout to new 3yr highs

Institutions May Pull Back, More May Be On The Way

Please add a description for the image.

Source: CoT – USD Sees Net Speculative Buying for 15th Week in a Row

Institutional positions long crude were at historical extremes on the back of record high compliance of OPEC + production curbs, and WTI appears to have lost the impulsively bullish look. Now, the focus will turn to the US Economic growth engine to see if fiscal policy and improvements in US energy trade balance can help revive the price of crude oil.

If not, the best returns QoQ may be in the record books, and the risk may be returning to the downside.

Sanctions on Iran remain, but if demand is not enough to soak up the new oil, it may not matter enough.

Daily NYMEX WTI – Crude Drops Like A Stone Below 100-DMA

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

To unpack this chart, you should know that the impulsiveness has lost its momentum. A break below $63 could mark the medium-term end to a multi-year rally.

Historically, the move off the 2016 low sub-$30 matches cleanly the pattern in 2012-2014 before the crash. While a crash is not the favored view, traders should watch for a breakdown if the pattern has any semblance of the follow through move in 2014.

Resistance at $70/bbl would invalidate the bearish view that I’ve formed based on extreme positioning and the notion the leading engine of economic growth, the US is service-based, unlike China in 2009-2012 that was lifting oil with demand for oil due to physical assets.

Unlock our Q3 18 forecast to learn what will drive trends for Crude Oil

Forex Trading Resources To Enhance Your Strategy

DailyFX offers a surplus of helpful trading tools, indicators, and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.

Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities, and our real-time news feedhas intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we watch.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as trading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell


DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.