We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #DAX 30 remains in a short-term consolidation phase, one that began last week just after new record highs above 13596 were notched. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/vV5qQ9xfxG https://t.co/PogbD9ZpPx
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 53.36 (+2.52%), ICE Brent Crude 59.17 (+2.46%), NYM NYH Gasoline 166.27 (+2.93%). [delayed]
  • RT @BobPisani: $JPM strategist Marko Konanovic on a potential Technology bubble: "Signs that certain segments of tech are trading at unsus…
  • As forecasted, #DXY stopped just short of resistance at the October high at 99.67. See my USD weekly forecast here⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2020/02/15/US-Dollar-Outlook-Bullish-on-FOMC-Minutes-Coronavirus-Iran.html Title: US Dollar Outlook Bullish on FOMC Minutes, Coronavirus, Iran https://t.co/Wpxt0ukheU
  • $USDJPY at highest level since May,2019 following FOMC Minutes #FED https://t.co/x0VmCx8T8z
  • Japanese #Yen Price Outlook: $USDJPY Breakout Underway– Trade Levels - https://t.co/ahPQpch2ho https://t.co/2uL5lzrPI2
  • RT @DriehausCapital: Quite the surge in single stock options volume. Coming in hot at up 77% YTD. YS #DriehausAlts https://t.co/M5qLsDHHw2
  • Have a few meetings and come back to $USDJPY's rally accelerating to the biggest single day climb in three years. The CME's Yen volatility index (in blue) doesn't seem to be matching the market's move https://t.co/0x7mKCboLG
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.05% Gold: 0.45% Oil - US Crude: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZXFMZH1ioT
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.658% 3-Year: -0.673% 5-Year: -0.627% 7-Year: -0.581% 10-Year: -0.422% 30-Year: 0.090%
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Leads As OPEC Boosts Demand Forecast

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Leads As OPEC Boosts Demand Forecast

2018-05-14 19:30:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Crude Oil Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • The ONE Thing: Demand dynamics and supply shocks help to keep oil supported. While volatility appears set for a higher average than 2017, which is not saying much as it had the lowest realized cross-asset volatility in multiple decades there appears to be no room for gold to test crude’s dominance of the market. Metals remain mixed as higher rates keep traders away from the non-yielding yellow metal while backwardation continues to support crude. Even base metals are losing their flavor on slowing demand growth in China.
  • Last week, President Trump ordered the reinstatement of Iran sanctions: While crude outsiders may see that as the key bullish driver, the demand dynamics remain in the driver seat as supply shocks may continue to arise and help take crude toward bullish targets of $77/bbl, which marks the 61.8% retracement of the 2014/2016 range.
  • OPEC raises their 2018 demand forecast helping to show the physical market may tighten further.
  • WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis Strategy: New technical support will be firm at Tuesday’s low of $67.63/bbl. Selling above this level is an ego call that seeks to say when momentum will turn in favor of one’s preconceived notions that the market is “overbought.”
  • Access our recent Crude Oil Fundamental Forecast here

WTI crude oil is opening week in the green with front-month contracts of WTI & Brent trading at $70.95/bbl & $77.87/bbl respectively. Over the weekend, Saudi came out to calm markets by saying their capacity would easily make up anything “lost” by newly imposes Iranian sanctions on Trump’s exit from the Iran accord. However, the positive price action is being credited to OPEC’s recently released Monthly Oil Market Report where they lifted (again) their demand estimates.

Futures Positioning Insights From CFTC CoT

Last week’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report that came out before Trump announced he was leaving the Iranian Accord and imposing sanctions on OPEC’s third largest producer showed that investors have recently pared their bullish bets with Brent net longs cut by -22,009 contracts to 569,448 while WTI decreased some -7,439 contracts to 410,608.

CoT Data Shows Crude Bulls At 71% of 52-Week Range

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Leads As OPEC Boosts Demand Forecast

Article Source: CoT: USD/CHF Bearish on Swiss Franc Position Changes, Technicals

Unlock our Q2 18 forecast to learn what will drive trends for Crude Oil in a volatile Q2

Technical Analysis – WTI Crude Oil Stays In Bullish Standing > $67.56/BBL

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Markets are said to take the stairs higher and the elevator lower. The chart above shows both dynamics as it captures the massive drop in 2014 that mirrored the 2008/2009 drop toward lower levels and the recent rise from the January 2016 low.

When a trend is as strong as we see in crude, it’s often best to sit back and ask, at what level of support would a break below change my bullish view?

On the prompt WTI contract, that would be the January high at $66.58 to the low last week’s low at $67.56. Absent a break below this zone, it’s hard to say a top is in as momentum tends to lead price in markets, and crude is no exception.

Recommended Reading: 4 Effective Trading Indicators Every Trader Should Know

More for You:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on Crude Oil and other popular markets? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q2 have a section for each primary currency, and we also offer an excess of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our popular and free IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a surplus of helpful trading tools, indicators, and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.

Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities, and our real-time news feedhas intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as trading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.