We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • EUR/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their least net-long EUR/JPY since Jan 14 when EUR/JPY traded near 122.23. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/JPY strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/PIrps86vUZ
  • The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) has its record intraday high. Now is the point where we have the milestone and we start considering conviction. And, that sharp ascending wedge puts a lot of pressure on bullish control https://t.co/VJlAKLD75I
  • Senator McConnell says China will face consequences for its behavior - BBG
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.45% Silver: -0.14% Oil - US Crude: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fUy5sGQh7e
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.31%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.93%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/K2JT5NtBzZ
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.64% Silver: 0.13% Oil - US Crude: -1.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ERG8JOGxZf
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: -0.23% Wall Street: -0.31% US 500: -0.36% Germany 30: -0.54% FTSE 100: -0.72% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/JEODi73ZcM
  • Finland's government states that is rejects EC proposal for recovery package as it now stands and demands change $EUR
  • GBP/USD is easing back Thursday after a week of gains as the June 30 deadline for the UK to ask for an extension of its Brexit transition period approaches. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/ymQqurP9Nw https://t.co/pmPrbAgrC6
  • One for the ECB minutes to provide clarity - Lagarde says there was "broad" consensus over EUR 600bln boost in PEPP
Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Leg Higher On Shrinking US Stockpiles

Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Leg Higher On Shrinking US Stockpiles

2018-04-18 19:30:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Crude Oil Price Forecast Talking Points:

  • WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis Strategy: Bullish continuation anticipated in a volatile environment
  • A small increase in US production is little match for across the board drawdown in crude, gasoline, and distillates.
  • Trader Sentiment Highlight from IG UK: retail short positions favors further advances

OPEC and the United States seem to be sending Bullish signals to the Crude Oil market. OPEC and Russia appear to be setting the stage to keep oil cuts going despite a vanishing glut that caused them to engage the production curbs in the first place.

Second, shrinking US Oil stockpiles are showing a tighter physical market per the EIA report on Wednesday that puts pressure on physical buyers to buy now and hold as the benefits of carrying the physical exceed the costs as evidenced by backwardation.

These developments have led to Crude futures surging nearly 3% in New York with the price pushing closer to the $70/bbl mark for WTI and $75/bbl on Brent for June settlement. For the former, there remains a confluence of technical resistance from Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl mark that could be seen as a place for buyers to take profits should the fundamental data develop fault lines.

Unlock our Q2 18 forecast to learn what will drive trends for Crude Oil in a volatile Q2

US Oil Exports Remain Elevated and Keep Oil Bulls Humming

Please add a description for the image.

Data source: Bloomberg, DoE

The chart above helps visualize the sharp rebound in US crude exports to nearly 1.8 million bpd that helps traders see how over-compliance by the OPEC+ constituents on the agreed upon production curb alongside Venezuela’s production collapse is paving the road for tighter markets and higher prices.

Technical Focus Looks to Price > Ichimoku Cloud, Fibonacci Targets

Crude oil looks set to test a key confluence of Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl level that combines the 50% retracement of the 2014-2016 price range and the 100% Fibonacci extension of the 2016/2017 extremes drawn off the 2017 low of $42.07/bbl.

Given the fundamental view shared above and the continued market support from OPEC+, it’s hard to be long-term or medium-term bearish crude oil with a straight face with price trading above the Ichimoku cloud as the lagging line is also above price from 26-periods ago.

Want a full (& FREE) guide to walk you through Ichimoku? I created one here (click Advanced Guides)

Chart Watch:WTI Crude Price Continues To Push $70/bbl

Please add a description for the image.

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT. Tweet @ForexYell for comments, questions

WTI Crude Oil Insight from IG Client Positioning

Crude Oil Price Forecast: A Leg Higher On Shrinking US Stockpiles

Source: IG CLIENT SENTIMENT data provided by IG

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short (emphasis mine.)

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

Join Tyler’s distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.