News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • UK money markets erase bets on BoE rate cut - BBG. #BoE $GBP
  • $EURUSD has strengthened today amidst weakness from the US Dollar, rising back above the 1.2200 level for the first time since early January. $EUR $USD
  • $USD is weak, so is $Gold continued bearish move from that resistance inflection earlier this week. making another move towards the key support zone 1763-1766 (img 2) $GC $GLD
  • $USDCAD crushed through that 1.2500 handle, but selling seems to be slowing below the psych level. could be an item of resistance for bearish trend plays in the pair
  • Fed's Bostic: - Economy is currently in a rough patch, recovery has been very uneven - GDP rebound has happened faster than employment rebound - Optimistic that vaccinations will drive faster job growth - Fed's mandate focuses on employment, not GDP #Fed $USD
  • Yields on the US 10y Treasury tightened slightly following strong durable goods orders and lower than expected jobless claims prints, falling from 1.46% to 1.44%. $USD $GOVT
  • GBP/CNH approaching an interesting area of longer-term resistance... #yuan #sterling #gbpcnh @DailyFX Prices via @IGcom
  • 🇺🇸 GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est (Q4) Actual: 1.8% Expected: 2% Previous: 3.3%
  • 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (20/FEB) Actual: 730K Expected: 838K Previous: 841K
  • 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-week Average (FEB/20) Actual: 807.75K Previous: 828.25K
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Falling Into Important Price Channel Support

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Falling Into Important Price Channel Support

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Will Shale production spoil OPEC’s best-laid plans? To see our thoughts, access the DFX Q2 Oil forecast here.

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: hanging by a bullish thread above $46/bbl
  • Oil rallies fail to hold on fear of shale production spoiling the party
  • IGCS Sentiment highlight: combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias

Crude Oil has fallen despite all the support OPEC has provided to Crude Oil Bulls. Either way, it appears more is needed to prevent buyers from selling and shorts from piling on to the pain. Wednesday will provide traders with the weekly EIA inventory report, which is expected to see the ninth straight fall. A future market occurrence of Contango, where near-term contracts trade above longer-term expiries has narrowed between July & August contracts, which could help explain the support found in Oil prices on Tuesday.

A larger concern is that Oil continues to trade below the psychologically important $50-mark, as it has since the OPEC announcement that cuts would be extended into 2018. Much of the weakness in price has been appropriately blamed on US shale production, but a possible drop in inventories on Wednesday could help support price further and help push the market back toward the important $50/bbl level. Regardless of the inventory number, which will affect the front-month futures contract, the EIA US crude output forecast that was released on Tuesday could also raise concerns that oversupply will remain a problem. The EIA forecasted that daily US production would reach 10.01 barrels a day, which surpasses the 1970 record of 9.6m bbl. You can see why the lack of positive economic surprises along with record Oil production is putting a cap on high prices are likely to rise.

When looking at the charts, it’s fair to be optimistic despite the fundamentals. You can see we are in a battle of two channels. A longer-term channel is drawn in red, where price is in the lowerquartile and has previously bounced from and shorter-term channel (blue) that also has found support the lower bound of the longer-term channel. These charts do not predict the future, but a failure for these levels to hold (i.e., a strong price breakdown below $43/bbl) would open up the argument that we’re in the process of a fundamental shift in the Oil market that could mean we’ll soon see a test of $40/bbl. A hold of the zone would open up the argument that we may bounce to back toward $52/bbl where we were in anticipation of the OPEC announcement where traders were buying the rumors to sell the news.

JoinTylerin hisDaily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ETto discuss tradeable market developments.

Crude Oil continues is trading in a zone where we’ve recently seen large bounces

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Falling Into Important Price Channel Support

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Crude Oil Sentiment:

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Falling Into Important Price Channel Support

Oil - US Crude: Retail trader data shows 73.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.84 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5333.7; price has moved 11.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 8.6% higher than yesterday and 54.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.6% lower than yesterday and 29.2% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)


Shorter-Term US OIL Technical Levels: Tuesday, June 06, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Falling Into Important Price Channel Support

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.