News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Industrial Production YoY Prel (SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: -13.8%
  • 🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (SEP) Actual: 3.0% Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.0%
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Unemployment Rate (SEP) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.1% Previous: 3.0%
  • - #Biden is leading in the polls but a last-minute surprise could be in the cards - #Covid-19 case spike, fiscal stalemate souring sentiment and derailing outlook - #AUDUSD puncturing support at 0.7018 may open the door to further declines
  • The Dow Jones will look to earnings from Apple, which was once the largest component of the index. Get your #Dowjones market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Relief rally ahead for $AUDNZD? Bullish RSI divergence at key psychological support (1.0600) suggests a rebound back towards the 21-MA (1.0626) and 50-MA (1.0659) could be on the cards Conversely, a break below 1.0590 probably opens the door for further losses. $AUD $NZD
  • WTI Crude Oil fell to a fresh four-month-low this morning. This fresh low broke through range support that’s held for the better part of two months. Get your #crudeoil technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.25% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.42% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.59% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pushing Into Important Price Resistance

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pushing Into Important Price Resistance

2017-05-18 16:04:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Can OPEC push crude oil prices higher? To see our thoughts, access the DFX Q2 Oil forecast here.

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Bullish on a close above $50/bbl
  • OPEC expected to extend production cuts in Vienna next week
  • Oil price remains trapped in bearish falling channel, < Ichimoku cloud

The price of WTI crude Oil does not seem to be bothered by the headlines signaling political turmoil in the US, but rather is favoring the outlook that OPEC is expected to extend the production curb another 9-months. On May 25, investors will likely get confirmation of whether or not the production cuts will be extended, but we have already heard the support of the idea from Russia and Saudi Arabia. While many feel that OPEC has been left little choice, but to cut production due to the increase in production from shale discounting their efforts, traders still seem content to bid for Oil, which has kept the price pushing ever higher towards the important $50/bbl level for WTI Crude. The question that will continue to remain, even if the 9-month extension is approved and compliance among the members remains impressive is whether or not Non-OPEC production (i.e., shale) will swamp the deal’s effectiveness and keep the market oversupplied.

While the fundamental story shows that we should be working ever-closer to a balanced market with OPEC increasing how long they will pull back production, the charts seem also seem to favor upside if the price can close on a daily basis above $50/bbl. Given the current news cycle and encouraging EIA inventory data out of the US, the market appears to be supported near $48/bbl. A break above $50 along with the developing sentiment picture below helps to paint a picture that we’ll soon see a move to the top of the falling bearish channel near $52/bbl.

If the price can break above the top of the bearish channel, we expect the US production to play less of a factor in headlines as traders start to focus once again on an approach toward $60/bbl. If crude does move higher, it’s worth keeping an eye on Oil-driven currencies like USD/CAD, USD/NOK, and USD/MXN.

Of course, OPEC is working to put the market in a place where demand outstrips supply. If they can do that, they’ll need a helping hand from the demand side, which will likely be dependent on a resumption of positive economic activity in the US & China that has been absent of late.

Join Tyler in his Daily Closing Bell webinars at 3 pm ET to discuss tradeable market developments.

Crude Oil continues to stay offered below $47.11 as Ichimoku favors downside continuation

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pushing Into Important Price Resistance

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Crude Oil Sentiment:

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pushing Into Important Price Resistance

Oil - US Crude: As of May 8, retail trader data shows 68.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.13 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 19 when Oil - US Crude traded near 5301.8; price has moved 7.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.6% lower than yesterday and 23.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.4% higher than yesterday and 11.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall.Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Oil - US Crude price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. (Emphasis Mine)


Shorter-Term US OIL Technical Levels: Thursday, May 18, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Pushing Into Important Price Resistance

Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.