News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Faces Familiar Test On Break of 200-DMA

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Faces Familiar Test On Break of 200-DMA

2017-03-13 18:35:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

  • Dollar strength/ rising rates likely adding to worries alongside possible over-production

Crude Oil looks to be suffering from its own success. Specifically, the rising Oil price and technology gains in the sector have made shale production cheaper than ever allowing US firms to produce at lower price levels and remain profitable. However, the profitable level is believed to now be in the low $40 range, with some firms like BP aiming to be a $35/bbl firm meaning they can still operate profitably with Oil trading at $35/bbl.

The problem that many of these firms are facing can be seen in the Baker Hughes Rig Count, which pushed higher on Friday to 617. The US Rig count has been on a near straight incline since summer 2016 and shows firms eagerness to produce and squeeze out a profit as Oil price stability surfaced after multiple quarter-on-quarter price declines. However, the rising right count had aligned cleanly with the rising US stockpiles, which had recently reached levels not seen since the wildcatter days of the 1930s in the US when Oil producers were sprouting up like weeds to turn a fortune despite the recession. They took the price of a barrel of Oil down to $0.01 due to their overproduction causing many to leave the business and sell their mineral rights, and a similar fate (except the $0.01 per barrel) could re-emerge if the drilling and supply stockpiles continue to grow without a match in demand.

Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude Oil has found itself in familiar territory with stretched momentum. The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they’ve dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market doesn’t have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25.

While such a breakdown would hurt, price holding above the November low could indicate a longer-term consolidation lasting much of the year. Either an immediate move back above the 200-DMA or hold of the November low would keep a neutral market still anticipating an eventual move back toward the upper $50/bbl region.

A breakdown below the November low would complement the Bull’s fear of a longer-term topping pattern before a new attempt at $low-30 or 20/bbl, though I do not take that view until we break the November low.

Are commodity prices matching DailyFX forecasts so far in 2017? Find out here!

Please add a description for the image.

Chart created using TradingView


Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for

Key LevelsOver the Next 48-hrs of Trading as ofMonday, March 13, 2017

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Faces Familiar Test On Break of 200-DMA

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours of trading.

Contact and follow Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.