We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD is falling against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah as stock markets rise. Watch out for US-China escalation and Brexit talks. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/PziC8KZaIC https://t.co/IhJHu2WCVZ
  • For those who argue a bullish case for stocks... Let me counter with a single chart of the gold to S&P 500 ratio. Looks to me like risk-reward favors bullion over equities. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/6qiSh8E0ht https://t.co/lKViSEnrMc
  • - Silver prices could pull back as negative RSI divergence shows slowing momentum - Copper prices have risen over 20 percent, are now trading above 17-year uptrend - Monthly perspective show the base metal has entered into a key compression zone https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/06/02/Silver--Copper-Prices-Enjoyed-a-Nice-Ride---Is-it-Time-to-Get-Off.html
  • What is it about a colorful Bloomberg Terminal that is so satisfying to look at? https://t.co/Qtv9wwQv75
  • I have finally found a way to express the social climate in San Francisco and the effects of peer pressure: https://t.co/yYFXFHG2Lb
  • The US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop.Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/vwChirq7SL
  • S&P 500 Forecast: Stocks Face Peril as Day of Reckoning Looms Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/06/01/spx-sp500-forecast-stocks-face-peril-as-day-of-reckoning-looms.html $SPX $SPY $ES_F #StockMarket #Investing #Analysis https://t.co/sufK8mMtD4
  • #ASEAN currencies (such as SGD, IDR, PHP and MYR) are relatively outperforming the #USD at a stronger pace than the Indian #Rupee vs the Greenback. This is despite notable gains in the MSCI #EmergingMarkets Index. Full $USDINR, #Nifty piece to come later today! https://t.co/n0SlkfnYOV
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/9gFVefFC3w
  • ⬇️Asia-Pacific Preview⬇️ - Wall Street buoyancy may spill over into Asia as investors shrug at domestic unrest - AUD and #NZD could rise with APAC stocks despite HK risks - #AUDUSD blew past key resistance and may now challenge multi-week swing-high https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/06/01/AUD-NZD-May-Rise-With-APAC-Stocks-Ahead-of-RBA-Rate-Decision.html
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

2016-12-05 17:00:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend
  • OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session
  • Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market

In a rather surprising move, OPEC went ahead with the Oil Production cut that they agreed to in Algiers in October. The cut has taken Oil to the highest levels since June 2015. The surprise mainly came from the apparent tension leading up to the agreement, but now that the Accord has been put in place, which will take effect on January 1st, the good news continues to flow. The specific good news in focus at the beginning of December is the potential for Non-OPEC players like Russia to join the production cut.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

Looking at the technical picture with Oil’s recent strength, we have seen a turn lower in the US Dollar that could continue to be a key factor in Oil’s strength.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: USOIL Advanced Above the Potential Double-Top To July 2015 Levels

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The support that we had been focusing on throughout the 2016 rebound was the rising trendline (black on the chart above) drawn from the first higher low. We were looking for a break below this on a possibly failed OPEC deal to be a confirmation that a double-top was in play. We now see the opposite was in the works where the trendline holding preceded new 16-month highs.

We noted from recent Commitment of Traders data was that we saw that long Brent exposure increased by its most in 7-weeks last week by Hedge Funds before the cut was announced. However, per Bloomberg and CFTC data, Hedge Fund managers cut their long-exposure by ~5% ahead of the cut, which may mean that a lot of the post-cut rally were those managers that missed the initial surge jumping back in.

A breakout in price may also be achieved if we see the RSI (5) on the lower portion of the chart above breakout above the trendline drawn since the summer momentum peak.

Another component that could help the price of Oil stay in breakout mode is the pull-back in the Dollar Index that we’ve seen in early month flows after the Italian Referendum.

Join Tyler Monday’s at 3 pm EST to discuss key global macro trends like Oil (Free Registration)

While the 18-week technical picture is messy, further upside targets are aided by Fibonacci analysis over recent price ranges. When looking at the May 2015-February 2016 range as well as Fibonacci Expansions over the recent October-November range, we see a confluence of upside targets near $54/bbl in WTI (CFD: USOil).

Another sign that we’ve been on the watch out for is the definitive pull-away from the top of the Andrew’s Pitchfork. As price continues to pull away from the Pitchfork and trade above the Ichimoku Cloud, the burden of proof will fall on the bears to prove their case as the Bulls look to be trading in the path of least resistance.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Monday, December 05, 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

T.Y.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.