News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/TwrOBFgIwj
  • Gold prices were crushed this week as yields continued to climb. But with a big spot of support coming in, can buyers bring a bounce ahead of NFP? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/E1TTXVJGUm https://t.co/pD4TeAY3ZP
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/PiLYJDVvtY
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/453MLny2lu
  • The haven-linked US Dollar may be in a position to benefit in the short-run as economic recovery bets support longer-dated Treasury yields, making them more competitive with stocks. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BickxlcuZi https://t.co/OdARp4Z1mh
  • The Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 look to be on diverging technical paths as volatility spikes. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 teeters on support as it splits the difference between its sister indices. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/0gULgIN2kw https://t.co/dzuxyjkXmx
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/yTYG7ote3R
  • The reflation trade is helping to push the oil-linked Canadian Dollar higher as the post-Covid economic outlook clears. The Loonie is reliant on the global economy’s recovery. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/CYUiH0PCca https://t.co/my6clW7pxY
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/q8Ds7wYrKA
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/qtAmyhFU9A
Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Strong Dollar & Clear Support In Focus To Resume Downtrend
  • OPEC Production Cut Deal Comes Down To the Wire, Crude Down ~3.5% On Session
  • Deal Rejection Could Lead To Long Winter For Oil Market

In a rather surprising move, OPEC went ahead with the Oil Production cut that they agreed to in Algiers in October. The cut has taken Oil to the highest levels since June 2015. The surprise mainly came from the apparent tension leading up to the agreement, but now that the Accord has been put in place, which will take effect on January 1st, the good news continues to flow. The specific good news in focus at the beginning of December is the potential for Non-OPEC players like Russia to join the production cut.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

Looking at the technical picture with Oil’s recent strength, we have seen a turn lower in the US Dollar that could continue to be a key factor in Oil’s strength.

D1Crude Oil Price Chart: USOIL Advanced Above the Potential Double-Top To July 2015 Levels

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT Courtesy of TradingView

The support that we had been focusing on throughout the 2016 rebound was the rising trendline (black on the chart above) drawn from the first higher low. We were looking for a break below this on a possibly failed OPEC deal to be a confirmation that a double-top was in play. We now see the opposite was in the works where the trendline holding preceded new 16-month highs.

We noted from recent Commitment of Traders data was that we saw that long Brent exposure increased by its most in 7-weeks last week by Hedge Funds before the cut was announced. However, per Bloomberg and CFTC data, Hedge Fund managers cut their long-exposure by ~5% ahead of the cut, which may mean that a lot of the post-cut rally were those managers that missed the initial surge jumping back in.

A breakout in price may also be achieved if we see the RSI (5) on the lower portion of the chart above breakout above the trendline drawn since the summer momentum peak.

Another component that could help the price of Oil stay in breakout mode is the pull-back in the Dollar Index that we’ve seen in early month flows after the Italian Referendum.

Join Tyler Monday’s at 3 pm EST to discuss key global macro trends like Oil (Free Registration)

While the 18-week technical picture is messy, further upside targets are aided by Fibonacci analysis over recent price ranges. When looking at the May 2015-February 2016 range as well as Fibonacci Expansions over the recent October-November range, we see a confluence of upside targets near $54/bbl in WTI (CFD: USOil).

Another sign that we’ve been on the watch out for is the definitive pull-away from the top of the Andrew’s Pitchfork. As price continues to pull away from the Pitchfork and trade above the Ichimoku Cloud, the burden of proof will fall on the bears to prove their case as the Bulls look to be trading in the path of least resistance.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading as of Monday, December 05, 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: 16-Month Highs In Oil Negates Double-Top

T.Y.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES