News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices tend to move against inventory changes. Recent fall in US crude oil inventories has underpinned WTI prices. Oil traders are eyeing weekly EIA inventory data on Wednesday, expecting further decline in stockpiles. https://t.co/MGkIuMQDME
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.47% Gold: 0.64% Oil - US Crude: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/OmjUX9Bqn9
  • Retail trader data shows 48.82% of traders are net-long crude oil with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.05 to 1. https://t.co/EqqMQjbHt9
  • The S&P 500 may cautiously rise if investors believe a breakthrough in fiscal talks could be made before the November 3 election. Markets now brace for the final presidential debate. Get your S&P500 market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/CQgeT55Ax3 https://t.co/kbFybIBFhE
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.40% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.39% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/syhc439Snn
  • Technically, the Nasdaq 100 index appears to have formed a bearish “AB=CD” pattern (chart below). An immediate support level can be found at 11,650, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 20-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line overlap. https://t.co/XJ55wo834j
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.62%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 72.91%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Yso2dgKU4I
  • 10 out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the green, with 70% of the index’s constituents ending higher yesterday. Energy (+1.13%) and financials (+0.82%) and were among the better performers, whereas consumer staples (-0.11%) and healthcare (+0.13%) were lagging. https://t.co/XbJZafP2qG
  • Broad risk-on tilt seen early in APAC trade - Haven-associated $USD and $JPY sliding to fresh session-lows as the risk-sensitive $AUDUSD climbs higher. - #Gold eyeing a push to session-highs while #SP500 futures hover relatively steady - #Crudeoil attempting to push back to $42 https://t.co/Uh2YW4jeAP
  • Netflix fell over 5% after its Q3 results came sharply below forecasts in terms of earnings-per-share (EPS), new subscribers and forward guidance due to a drastic slowdown in sign-ups in the summer season. https://t.co/faqGMEJlHb
Crude Oil Price Forecast: OPEC Deal Continues to Feel Fragile

Crude Oil Price Forecast: OPEC Deal Continues to Feel Fragile

2016-10-24 17:15:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Access Free Oil Trading Guide from DailyFX Analysts HERE!

Talking Points:

Crude Oil price has drifted lower at the start of the week after discouraging news for traders looking for confirmation that an OPEC deal is around the corner. Specifically, Iraq’s Oil Minister said that Iraq should be exempt from the OPEC accord to cut production due to their ongoing struggle with Islamic Militants.

Russia also refused over the weekend to confirm that they would join OPEC in the production cut as Alexander Novak, the Russian Energy Minister has said that they are looking at “many scenarios,” to see what will bring about an Oil Recovery. Last week, U.S. Aggregate supply showed its sixth decline in seven weeks and the size of the draw caused Oil to trade at 2016 highs.

Interested In a Quick Guide about OPEC, Click Here

These reports could cause a “wait-and-see” approach to a fixed-time agreement to cut production. Any failure of a production cut to materialize would be expected to take the price of Oil down by ~10-20% as much of the recent move to above $50 has been in expectation of the largest producers in the world bring supply in line with demand.

On cross-market effect that could help the price of Oil is if the USD were to pull back from it’s run into seven-month highs. Per the DXY, the US Dollar is sitting near the top of its regression band from August and is due for a pullback this week, which could support the price of Oil as the DXY & Oil have a historical inverse relationship.

H4 Crude Oil Price Chart: Watching Triangle Support On Price Pullback @ $49.70/19 per bbl

Crude Oil Price Forecast: OPEC Deal Continues to Feel Fragile

The WTI Crude Oil chart above shows two key levels that price could test if Oil weakness were to persist. The first zone that we’ve mentioned before is the support points of the consolidating triangle. The lower points of the triangle are $49.35/bbl followed by the base on the Bullish Key Day at $49.17/bbl.

If these levels continue to hold, we’ll keep a Bullish Bias, and look for impending USD weakness to help get us there until we get more information about the OPEC deal. Should OPEC deals continue to disintegrate, and Oil weakness persists below the support on watch, we’d look for the price to move toward trendline support that is currently between the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci Retracement zones at $47.23-$46.24/bbl. of the September-October Range from $42.72-$51.92/bbl.

Oil Implied Volatility has continued to be low since August, which continues to keep our bias higher

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Friday, October 24, 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: OPEC Deal Continues to Feel Fragile

T.Y.

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES