News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar continues to see varied performance against ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD is consolidating. USD/THB may bounce. USD/IDR and USD/PHP could continue lower.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Ccvcy93t5X https://t.co/96VSJdvfcR
  • 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate YoY (MAY) Actual: -0.1% Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • 🇯🇵 Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAY) Actual: 0.1% Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • 🇯🇵 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (MAY) Actual: -0.2% Previous: -0.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • The Swiss Franc has seen a bout of strength in recent months against several peer currencies. Here are technical levels to watch in USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and CHF/JPY. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/e2kHTtBHW3 https://t.co/oaIsshglET
  • Gold Price to Recover if Fed Rate Hike Risk & USD Strength Ebb -via @DailyFX Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/17/gold-price-to-recover-if-fed-rate-hike-risk-usd-strength-ebb.html $XAUUSD $GLD $GC_F https://t.co/CfcpZ2BgBX
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Core Inflation Rate YoY (MAY) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 0.1% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy YoY (MAY) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Inflation Rate YoY (MAY) due at 23:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-17
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Sinks Alongside Commodity Prices as Post-FOMC USD Run Continues Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/06/17/Australian-Dollar-Sinks-Alongside-Commodity-Prices-as-Post-FOMC-USD-Run-Continues.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t…
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops on Signs of Failed Accord

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops on Signs of Failed Accord

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

  • Crude Oil Technical Strategy: Short bias remains as falling resistance favors move to $43/bbl
  • Supply glut may get worse as IEA favors imbalance through late 2014
  • US Dollar continues sideways, which takes out a component of downward price pressure

The last week of Q3 has all focus on the OPEC and Russia meeting in Algiers. The Federal Reserve announcement did little for the US Dollar as many now see even the likelihood of one rate hike as a fading possibility. Now, Algiers may be a disappointment for Oil Bulls as the FOMC meeting on September 21 were to US Dollar Bulls as Iran has said they are not going to freeze output at the current level, and Saudi is not interested in freezing production alone.

Track short-term Crude Oil price levels and patterns with the GSI indicator!

While much focus is now on the outcome of the OPEC meeting in Algiers, and the following meeting in November where rumors will likely run rampant once again. However, on Tuesday, IEA came out with a warning that oversupply will exceed demand until late 2017. Traders will likely keep this warning in their back pocket and look for a possible failed-OPEC accord alongside DOE data on Wednesday to show a further build to increase further bearish bets on Oil.

Another development in institutional positioning has the aggressive bearish sentiment that has not been seen since September 2015. The bearish sentiment comes in the forms of Bearish Puts, which are purchased when traders want to sell higher than they believe the market will be in a set amount of time. Such bearish exposure could see the market test some key levels on the charts.

TradingView D1 Crude Oil Price Chart: Head & Shoulder’s Bullish Pattern Still Validating

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops on Signs of Failed Accord

The chart above shows competing technical stories. As explained earlier, the fundamental pressure appears to be for a push lower. Only a reversal of main themes such as a weak US Dollar, Oversupply, OPEC failed accord, followed by a price breakout above $50/bbl should turn trader’s attention toward the bullish mindset of Q2. The competition comes in the form of a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern that would activate an upside bias on a daily close above $50/bbl.

Currently, the price of Crude Oil is sitting in the middle of the August price range, which has engulfed September’s price action. Tuesday’s low was the 50% retracement of the range that spans from $49.10/bbl down to $39.22/bbl. The price support in focus now appears to be near the September low of $42.74/bbl, and if the price is unable to hold above that support, we will turn focus toward the daily price range of the August low from $40.84-$39.22/bbl. Such a breakdown would keep us patiently on the bearish side of the Oil market with a keen focus on fundamental stories.

Looking at the chart above, you can also see the 200-DMA also sits very close to the support levels mentioned above. Many eyes are on these levels from an institutional side to see if buyer’s begin to pour into Crude long positions with stops likely at the August low of $39.22/bbl.

Key Levels Over the Next 48-hrs of Trading As of Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Drops on Signs of Failed Accord

T.Y.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES