News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/uDeIMr1Ks4
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/srqRhfdKUd
  • Cable is pulling off after a strong run; near-term weakness may be the theme before trying to rally again. Get your weekly GBP technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/030gXzxlEc https://t.co/ux7W6OcBOm
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/FPKAoLQuuI
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/2L5DGk7cxl
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/zRBB1hmhJm
  • USD/CAD has bounced off a key support area on Friday and could potentially charge higher in the coming week as risk-aversion over coronavirus fears has started to dominate market moves. Get your weekly CAD technical forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/bySyBXTAdr https://t.co/y6UqD0quGN
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/sPcCTQfaRd
  • The US Dollar slipped last week after the Federal Reserve calmed taper timeline talks. Friday’s non-farm payrolls figure may rekindle upside USD bets if it impressive. Get your weekly USD forecast from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/4KDanAA0Q1 https://t.co/ZZWpIZlZBo
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/J0F9xIw2I0
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast:The Biggest Bullish Test Of 2016

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast:The Biggest Bullish Test Of 2016

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To receive Tyler’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Talking Points:

This week will see how the price of crude oil reacts to the 200-day moving average. The 200-day moving averages long known as the most reliable form of technical analysis to its simplicity and effectiveness. In short, if the current price is above the 200-day moving average (average price of roughly a year’s worth of price data) bullish bets should be favored. On the opposite end, price below the 200-day moving average tends to encourage an outright parish bias with a conviction to sell rallies as they are seen as temporary and less sustainable as dictated by the average price.

After a 60.5% rally off the February 11 low, which has been aided in no small part to the weakness of the US dollar and the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve action to hike interest rates more than once this year, Oil’s true technical test has arrived. As you can see on the chart below, the price of oil has failed to times the last year at the 200-day moving average in both June and October within a few cents of the price and the moving average.

To See How FXCM’s Live Clients Are Positioned In FX & Equities Click Here Now.

Now, a break higher beyond the 200-day moving average will uniformly change the tone of risk and energy and affected markets such as emerging markets that are heavily commodity dependent. Since falling below the 200-dma back in July 2014, oil has been in an outright bear trend. As you can imagine, many analysts and traders are expecting the optimism to fail at this key resistance once again.

The 200-DMA Has Been A Formidable Foe For WTI Crude Oil Since July 2014

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast:The Biggest Bullish Test Of 2016

Key Support Levels from Here

As of Monday, 200-day moving average sits if you sense below $42 per barrel. Given the fortitude of the moving average, there is little resistance outside of this level that matters for now considering the party risen nearly 61% and prices to lower off the 200-day moving average majorly before in the last year.

Support is another story altogether. If we turn lower opportunity moving average, yet hold minor and major support, it is likely only a matter of time before the 200-day moving average is tested again. A short-term moving average and 21-day moving average, currently at $36.11 per barrel is a hopeful support because aligns with the recent low on March 15. While not a price support, it is also helpful to watch the RSI (5) support below the chart, because he break of the trend line and show momentum is falling again. Adding to the $36.11 level per barrel for key support is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the February 11 low up to 200-day moving average.

Contrarian System Warns of Potential Top

In addition to the technical focus around the 200-DMA resistance, we should keep an eye on Bulls have begun to crowd out the market for the first time in a month. A move into resistance, and possibly beyond aligns with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. Our internal readings of Oil are showing an SSI reading of 1.1309. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives a signal that the US Oil may continue lower. The trading crowd has flipped from net-short to net-long from yesterday and last week. If the reading were to turn further positive yet again, and the price broke back below $36.11 support, we could begin looking for a retest of the $30/bbl level.

T.Y.

Think a bottom is in or forming in Oil? Trade Oil With Low Margin Requirements (non-US Residents only)

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES