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WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: You Can’t Spell Turmoil without Oil

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: You Can’t Spell Turmoil without Oil

2016-01-20 15:55:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
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Interested In our Analyst’s Longer-Term Oil Outlook, be sure to sign up for our free oil guide here.

Talking Points:

Stop me if you have heard this before. Oil has to be near a bottom! It is getting outrageously cheap. Just a reminder: If you buy Oil at $30/bb and it drops to $20, which is a drop in the asset you invested in by 33%. Yes, as Oil gets closer to $0, it is by definition getting closer to a bottom, but those type of “bottom-bets” have been disastrous for many hedge funds and speculators in this +18-month slide.

As Oil has fallen to a new 12-year low, the technical picture, aside from being bearish, has provided key levels of resistance that are worth noting. Until key resistance levels break, there are few indications that big buyers are showing up, but rather weak hands that will easily be pushed aside on the next move down.

In addition, as a friendly reminder, production continues to increase, and recent news has come out about Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia all in line to provide China with more Oil in the coming years. Non-OPEC shale producers in the US are producing to stay afloat because their ability to take care of the right side of their balance sheet is dependent on barrels of Oil produced.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: You Can’t Spell Turmoil without Oil

Technically, the new key zone of resistance sits around $32 per barrel. $32 is a zone that has seen price treat as prior support in early January and resistance over the last few days. As long as price stays below the $32bbl level, the path of least resistance remains lower with targets toward new multi-year lows near $26bbl.

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Oil may continue to fall even lower as inventories swell remains appropriate as China pushes up the US Dollar by weakening the Yuan aligns with our Speculative Sentiment Index or SSI. Our internal readings of Oil are showing an SSI reading of +2.000. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are bullish provides a signal that US Oil may continue lower.

T.Y.

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