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Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Rebound Eyes Resistance into NFP

Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Rebound Eyes Resistance into NFP

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: USD/JPY Near-term Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY breakdown marks outside-day reversal off confluent support- NFPs on tap
  • Key Near-term resistance at 109.84-110, bearish invalidation 110.54 – Support 109.07

The Japanese Yen virtually unchanged for the week against the US Dollar with USD/JPY paring early losses ahead of tomorrow’s US Non-Farm Payroll report. The focus is on a reaction into technical downtrend resistance just higher with the broader July decline at risk while above the 109-handle. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY technical price charts heading into NFP. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen technical setup and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Daily - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY has been trading within the continues of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the late-2020 / 2021 lows. An attempted breakdown below confluent Fibonacci support yesterday marked an outside-day reversal off the lows with the rebound now eyeing initial resistance at 109.67/84 – a region defined by the objective 2019 yearly open and the 38.2% retracement of the July decline. We’re looking for possible inflection up here with a breach / close above the July channel line (red) needed to suggest a more significant near-term low is in place.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 120

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY 120min - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at yen price action highlights the USD/JPY reversal off the 25% parallel with the recovery now testing the objective weekly opening-range highs at the 109.68/84 resistance zone. Initial support now rests back at 109.07/18 with a break below the 2020 yearly open at 108.62 needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway- such a scenario would keep the focus on the highlighted technical confluence at 107.99-108.19. A topside breach of this formation would shift the focus towards subsequent resistance objectives at 110.19 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 110.54- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The Japanese Yen is virtually unchanged for the week with USD/JPY dodging a major breakdown into the monthly open- it’s make or break here. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch into downtrend resistance – on the lookout for a reaction there to offer guidance IF reached. Ultimately, a close above 110.54 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend towards the yearly high-day close at 111.02. A close below 109 this week would once again risk a deeper breakdown – stay nimble heading into US NFPs tomorrow. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Price Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Yen Retail Positioning - Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at -1.14 (46.81% of traders are long) – weak bullish/neutral reading
  • Long positions are28.32% lower than yesterday and 0.61% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 20.45% higher than yesterday and 5.40% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key US / Japan Data Releases

Key US / Japan Data Releases - USD/JPY Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.