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Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Feast or Famine? Bulls Eye Resistance

Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Feast or Famine? Bulls Eye Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Weekly Chart
  • USD/JPY rebound once again testing Fibonacci pivot zone
  • Key Near-term resistance at 109.68/92 – Support 107.76

The Japanese Yen is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/JPY ranging just below a key resistance picot we’ve been tracking for weeks now. While the broader technical focus remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance may be vulnerable while below this key threshold and we’re looking for possible inflection in the days ahead for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart heading into tomorrow’s highly anticipated FOMC rate decision. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen technical setup and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Weekly - US Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook (March) we noted that the USD/JPY rally was approaching a critical resistance zone at, “109.68/92– the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold near-term.” In classic yen fashion, prices surged higher the following week to register a high at 110.96 before reversing sharply lower with a three week decline rebounding last week off confluence support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range and the 2017 low-week close at 107.76/83. Note that the 25% parallel of the ascending pitchfork formation extending off the yearly low also converges on this zone and has even caught the past two intraweek lows.

The recovery has now tested and responded to key resistance once again at the 2019 yearly open / 50% retracement of the 2016 decline at 109.68/92- we’re looking for possible inflection off this zone early in the month for guidance with the immediate recovery vulnerable while below. A topside breach / close above keeps the focus on the yearly high-week close at 110.64 backed by a more significant resistance confluence at the 2019/2020 high-week closes / 61.8% retracement at 111.60/98. A break / close sub-107.76 would risk a larger setback within the broader uptrend towards the 2019 low-week close at 106.24 with broader bullish invalidation at 105.79- both support levels of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The USD/JPY rally is once again approaching resistance at a key infection zone at 109.68/92. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stop - be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion. Ultimately, a larger setback may offer more favorable opportunities closer to uptrend support with a breach above 110.64 needed to mark resumption. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels – I’ll be discussing this setup in tomorrow’s Mid-Week Market Update Webinar.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.17 (53.83% of traders are long) – weak bearish/neutral reading
  • Long positions are12.61% higher than yesterday and 21.88% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 0.82% higher than yesterday and 0.14% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.


Key US / Japan Data Releases

Key US / Japan Data Releases - USD/JPY Economic Calendar - Dollar Yen Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.