Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Please try again

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar Events


Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events






More View More
Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Slams into August Range Lows

Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Slams into August Range Lows

What's on this page

Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Daily & 120min Charts
  • USD/JPY testing key support- bears at risk above 105.20 near-term
  • Resistance into 106 – break lower exposes 104.12

The Japanese Yen is vulnerable after a three-day offensive against the US Dollar with USD/JPY now testing key near-term support. A recovery off this mark may offer more favorable opportunities in the days ahead as price continues to trade within a well-defined technical formation. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY technical price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen trade setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Dec 22
( 13:12 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Short-term Trading Strategy Webinar
Register for Webinar
Join Now
Webinar Has Ended

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Daily - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Price Outlook we noted that USD/JPY was approaching a downtrend resistance and to, “be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of 107.58,” IF price was indeed heading lower. USD/JPY registered a high at 107.05 late-last week before turning sharply lower with a three-day sell-off taking price back into the August opening-range lows / confluence Fibonacci support at 105.20/29.

Monthly open resistance stands at 105.75 backed by the 2019 low-day close / May & June lows around ~106.10 – the risk remains weighted to the downside while below this threshold with a breach above the 38.2% retracement / monthly range highs at 107.08 ultimately needed to shift the focus back to the long-side.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 120min

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY 120min - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look a Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of an descending pitchfork formation extending April / June highs with an embedded channel guiding the most recent decline. A break below this key support barrier is needed to mark resumption with such scenario exposing the 78.6% retracement at 104.80 backed by the 2019 low at 104.44 and the 100% extension tat 104.13.

JPY Forecast
JPY Forecast
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our Japanese Yen Trading Forecast!
Get My Guide

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: USD/JPY is testing key support at the monthly range-lows and we’re looking for a reaction here. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of the weekly open on a recovery IF price is heading lower. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.13 (53.13% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are9.88% lower than yesterday and 5.19% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 23.85% higher than yesterday and 1.58% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/JPY Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 6% 1% 2%
Weekly 9% -2% 1%
Learn how shifts in USD/JPY retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide


Key US / Japanese Data Releases

Key US / Japanese Data Data Release - USD/JPY Economic Calendar - Trade Outlook

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Trade Setups

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.