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Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Slams into August Range Lows

Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Slams into August Range Lows

2020-08-19 15:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Daily & 120min Charts
  • USD/JPY testing key support- bears at risk above 105.20 near-term
  • Resistance into 106 – break lower exposes 104.12

The Japanese Yen is vulnerable after a three-day offensive against the US Dollar with USD/JPY now testing key near-term support. A recovery off this mark may offer more favorable opportunities in the days ahead as price continues to trade within a well-defined technical formation. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY technical price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen trade setup and more.

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Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Daily - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Price Outlook we noted that USD/JPY was approaching a downtrend resistance and to, “be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of 107.58,” IF price was indeed heading lower. USD/JPY registered a high at 107.05 late-last week before turning sharply lower with a three-day sell-off taking price back into the August opening-range lows / confluence Fibonacci support at 105.20/29.

Monthly open resistance stands at 105.75 backed by the 2019 low-day close / May & June lows around ~106.10 – the risk remains weighted to the downside while below this threshold with a breach above the 38.2% retracement / monthly range highs at 107.08 ultimately needed to shift the focus back to the long-side.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 120min

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY 120min - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look a Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of an descending pitchfork formationextending April / June highs with an embedded channel guiding the most recent decline. A break below this key support barrier is needed to mark resumption with such scenario exposing the 78.6% retracement at 104.80 backed by the 2019 low at 104.44 and the 100% extension tat 104.13.

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Bottom line: USD/JPY is testing key support at the monthly range-lows and we’re looking for a reaction here. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of the weekly open on a recovery IF price is heading lower. Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.13 (53.13% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are9.88% lower than yesterday and 5.19% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 23.85% higher than yesterday and 1.58% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/JPY MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% 6% -5%
Weekly 11% -24% -1%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

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