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Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Recovery at Risk into Resistance

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: USD/JPY Recovery at Risk into Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – Daily & 120min Charts
  • USD/JPY rebounds off uptrend support- rally testing channel resistance
  • Immediate focus is on break of 106.87-107.58 range for guidance

The Japanese Yen is on the defensive against the US Dollar with USD/JPY rallying more than 0.3% into open of the week. The advance takes price into near-term downtrend resistance with the weekly opening-range taking shape just above key Fibonacci support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY technical price charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen trade setup and more.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY Daily - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Price Outlook we noted that USD/JPY was approaching a critical resistance range at, “109.52/68 – look for a more significant reaction there for guidance.” Price briefly registered a high 109.85 in the following days before reversing sharply lower with USD/JPY falling more than 3.4% to test the 2019 low-day close at 106.09/31. The recovery failed into the start of July at the 50% retracement / May high at 107.91-108.9 – note that this region is also defined by the monthly open and will now serve as our bearish invalidation level.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 120min

Japanese Yen Price Chart - USD/JPY 120min - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look a Yen price action shows USD/JPY trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formationextending off the June lows with an embedded descending channel guiding the recent decline. Initial resistance stands at 107.40 backed by the 61.8% retracement at 107.58- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF price is indeed heading lower. nitial support at 107.09 backed by 106.87 – a break / close below this threshold is needed to suggest a larger correction is underway with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at 106.52 and 106.31.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: USD/JPY has set its’ weekly opening-range above slope support with the recovery now testing near-term downtrend resistance. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of 107.58 with a break below the lower parallel needed fuel the next leg lower in price. Ultimately a breach / close above the monthly range-high is needed to shift the focus back towards yearly open resistance at 108.62.Review my latest Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart

Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment - USD/JPY Price Chart - Dollar vs Yen Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/JPY - the ratio stands at +1.13 (53.13% of traders are long) – neutral reading
  • Long positions are9.88% lower than yesterday and 5.19% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 23.85% higher than yesterday and 1.58% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

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Key US / Japan Data Releases

Key US / Japan Data Releases - USD/JPY Economic Calendar

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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