Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:
- USD/JPY hovers around retracement support
- A conclusive break could be bearish
- AUD/JPY’s rise has run out of steam, March lows could be revisited
The Japanese Yen has been confined to narrow daily ranges against the US Dollar for the past ten days or so. A break, when it comes seems likely to be instructive.
Fundamentally both currencies have been sought as haven assets in the face of coronavirus’ spread. The Dollar made strong mid-March gains but the Japanese Yen has fought back since and USD/JPY’s downtrend from February 20 remains very much in place.
That said the pair has broken above a shorter-term downtrend from March 26 in the past week.
The problem for Dollar bulls is that it has not done so very convincingly and daily trading ranges since have been extremely narrow suggesting that there wasn’t much conviction behind the move.
USD/JPY is certainly struggling to break conclusively above the 107.70 level which marks the second, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from March 9 to March 25. This point seems rather important to the market, having effectively constrained Dollar bears since March 18. It forms the top of a trading band whose lower boundary is at the 50% retracement, 106.35.
If current levels hold the last notable high may be targeted. That was April 6’s 109.38. However, a marked break below that 107.70 point might be quite bullish for the Yen and presage further, sharper falls.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 16% | 5% | 7% |
| Weekly | 3% | 7% | 6% |
The Australian Dollar meanwhile looks to be wilting against the Japanese unit having fought back strongly from its late-march lows.
The AUD/JPY cross offers investors a valid gauge of overall risk appetite in that the Australian Dollar is perhaps the quintessential growth-correlated currency bet while the Yen stands out as a counter-cyclical haven.
The cross’s long downward meander from the start of 2020 looks very much in play still, with the latest rise petering out below the psychological resistance at 70.00. If that point can’t be regained into month’s end then support at 65,03 will loom. That was the last notable low, and the platform for the rise seen since April 6. If that point in turn can’t be defended then the lows of last month will beckon again.
Japanese Yen Resources for Traders
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--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research
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