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Japanese Yen Bulls May Be About To Cap USD/JPY Gains

Japanese Yen Bulls May Be About To Cap USD/JPY Gains

2020-02-11 01:45:00
David Cottle, Analyst
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Japanese Yen Technical Analysis Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY is back close to its recent highs
  • However, it’s also just above a range which is usually traded back intro quite quickly
  • EUR/JPY remains under considerable pressure

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major Japanese economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The Japanese Yen and the US Dollar are both doing well out of the anti-risk ‘haven’ bid seen as coronavirus spreads.

USD/JPY meanwhile has been in the ascendant, having risen quite sharply and consistently for over a week as stronger US economic data adds to the Dollar’s allure. However, the pair has now edged above the top of a range which has been traded back into quite quickly when breached, either way, ever since early October last year, and this may be time for caution.

US Dollar Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The market is clearly still wrestling with the latest upside break but is sending some confusing signals as it does so. The rate has already wilted back within the range, but clearly hasn’t fallen far and it looks as though the Dollar bulls would still like to make a fight of it.

The fundamental logic of haven bids may well see the pair squeeze higher this time but a close eye should be kept on the range top, 109.76. More daily or weekly closes above this may be instructive but traders will recall that the last upside break made in mid-January, saw seven daily closes above the line before a strong relapse back into range.

Bulls will attempt to target January 17’s intraday top of 110.27. Holding that ground might take the market above a downtrend line in place since June 25. Ability to stay above that would be a strong bullish sign, but that looks like a tall order given that momentum is already elevated.

A return to the old range looks more likely, and the market is clearly wary of it.

USD/JPY MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -11% -9%
Weekly -14% 4% -3%
What does it mean for price action?
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Meanwhile the Euro is in a lot more trouble against its Japanese rival. Never the haven play of the Dollar and Yen, the single currency is back down to lows not seen since late November last year against the latter.

Euro Vs Japanese Yen, Daily Chart

The Euro faces near-term support at 118.54 which is 50% retracement of the cross’ long rise up from the lows of September 5. For so long as the coronavirus story dominates the headlines its hard to see that support level holding although the Euro may see some consolidatory respite this week as the market looks to German growth data.

Japanese Yen Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

https://www.dailyfx.com/free_guide-tg.html?ref-author=Cottle.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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