News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 94.47%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 73.38%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WEkAIOeamU
  • President-Elect Joe Biden reiterates China has to play by international rules -BBG
  • As #CrudeOil surges, the #WTI Jan 21/Jan22 spread is at its highest since the beginning of this year following the #OPEC 500k b/d ease agreement. That was less than originally planned = tighter supply combined with improving demand outlook amid a vaccine - https://t.co/yTRAELqr6i https://t.co/5h5ZJsO9h8
  • The British Pound is eyeing a push to fresh yearly highs against the US Dollar. However, various technical setups suggest GBP could lose ground to JPY, EUR and NZD in the near term. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/NSUnZnxAdi https://t.co/BN1OvaqOUA
  • #CrudeOil prices rallying over 1.5% during Friday APAC trade #Oil #WTI https://t.co/rXUqvWx2mu
  • Crude oil prices spiked up in the last 10 mins. The US Dollar was little changed. Big news coming in? https://t.co/7IRafLFVZA
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Outlook: $AUDUSD May Rise, Overbought Conditions Eyed Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/12/04/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-May-Rise-Overbought-Conditions-Eyed.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/wxKBQo…
  • IGCS hints that gold prices may reverse higher as the S&P 500 aims for new highs. Things are looking a little bit more choppy for the growth-linked Australian Dollar. Get your $AUD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/xiaQOr5D7D https://t.co/IcPbKZpcgp
  • Friday's nonfarm payroll report will be closely scrutinized by investors to assess the health of the US job market amid another viral wave. Economists foresee a 475k increase in nonfarm jobs in November, marking a fifth consecutive monthly slowdown in positions added. https://t.co/MzFlDhecEi
  • The US registered 199,988 new coronavirus cases on December 2nd. Total cases surpassed 14 million.
USD/JPY Rate Forecast:  Yen Nears 4-Month Low As UST Yields Jump

USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Yen Nears 4-Month Low As UST Yields Jump

2018-05-17 18:00:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

USD/JPY Rate Forecast Talking Points:

  • The ONE Thing about USD/JPY: A parallel shift higher in the US Yield curve makes a long USD/JPY trade attractive. US Treasury yields extended their gains with the rate on the UST 10Yr to 3.1% and the US 30Yr yield hitting the highest level since 2015 as the sovereign bond selloff escalates on inflation fears. Such an environment tends to align with a rising USD/JPY.
  • USD/JPY Price Forecast: USD/JPY looks set to test and likely break 112 if the current higher yield/ rising commodity environment holds. USD/JPY is trading at the highest levels since late-January before the VIX/ risk heart-attack took risk assets lower and havens like JPY higher. Across the board on Thursday, the JPY was lower and support on USD/JPY looks safe at 109.80-108.90, which is comprised of Ichimoku trend support.
  • Options market insight shows bears are losing the faith in a strong JPY.
  • Markets continue to shrug off any signs of risk-off sentiment created around the uncertainty of North Korea’s summit, Italian elections, or rocky NAFTA negations, which were previously seen as supporting JPY strength.

See what we see when looking at the Japanese Yen. Check out our new Q2 Yen Forecast here.

Long-Term USD/JPY Chart Shows Trendline Resistance Approaching At 112

Please add a description for the image.

Chart Source: Pro Real Time with IG UK Price Feed. Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

Technical Levels on USD/JPY:

Resistance: 111.50/62 (2015 Trendline resistance, 50% retracement of 2015/2018 range)

Spot: 110.80

Support: 109.83/108.92 (Ichimoku 9-&26-day midpoint)

The support point in focus can best be seen through Ichimoku applied on the daily chart. The focal level is the 9- & 26-day midpoint at 109.84/108.92 respectively. Shorter-term support can be found on the hourly Ichimoku chart at 110, where the base of the cloud currently sits.

New to Ichimoku? Click here for a free guide if you’d like to learn more

Insight from Options Support USDJPY Higher

Please add a description for the image.

Data source: Bloomberg

The JPY continues to fall as USD/JPY pushes higher. USD/JPY is up 1% over the last four days, and the options market shows that JPY bulls (USD/JPY bearish) are no longer willing to pay the premium that out of the money puts relative to calls to protect against potential JPY strength.

The 1-month 25-delta risk reversal is showing the highest ratio (though still negative as is common with JPY crosses) since early January when USD/JPY was a few hundred pips higher.

More Trading Support for You:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q2 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer an excess of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our popular and free IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a surplus of helpful trading tools, indicators, and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions.

Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities, and our real-time news feedhas intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

---Written by Tyler Yell, CMT

Tyler Yell is a Chartered Market Technician. Tyler provides Technical analysis that is powered by fundamental factors on key markets as well as t1rading educational resources. Read more of Tyler’s Technical reports via his bio page.

Communicate with Tyler and have your shout below by posting in the comments area. Feel free to include your market views as well.

Discuss this market with Tyler in the live webinar, FX Closing Bell, Weekdays Monday-Thursday at 3 pm ET.

Talk markets on twitter @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES