We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.42% Gold: 0.41% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qdRVEtYobI
  • I am genuinely curious how Saudi Arabia got production back up so quickly. Makes it seem like they had massive spare capacity that was idled or they just ran a big garden hose around the portion of the plants that was destroyed...
  • US and Chinese 'deputies' are due to restart negotiations today. Meanwhile, the cumulative pain of tariffs continues to show through. FedEx earnings are an example. Here is $FDX overlaid with the Yuan-Dollar exchange rate (green) https://t.co/WZtuuUkhE7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.67%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/T417OE2Mmy
  • $NZDUSD: A close below the low end of the zone could send NZD/USD towards 0.6136. Get your #technicalanalysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/i2YMDFJkRp https://t.co/TuvWNJZtgg
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: 0.13% Germany 30: -0.04% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aDo9IwMads
  • Re-upping this. https://t.co/SUv8Lzbhxu
  • $USDCAD: The broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias. Get your technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/q1UJdW49AW https://t.co/OR0Gl1YPIn
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1,499.19 (+0.35%), #Aluminum 1,785.50 (-0.36%), and #Copper 5,814.00 (-0.12%). [delayed]
  • RT @BobOnMarkets: In other words, juts like back before forward guidance led markets to price out risk premiums and over-inflate asset pric…
USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Tight March Range May Have Found Catalyst

USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Tight March Range May Have Found Catalyst

2018-03-12 22:47:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

USD/JPY Rate Forecast Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Price Forecast: USD/JPY fails to break 26-day midpoint, remains in bearish stature
  • JP Finance Minister, Aso confirms Moritomo documents were altered to remove names of him and PM Abe
  • USD/JPY Rate Insight from IG UK: 3.15:1 long to short ratio by retail favors further declines

After trading in a rather tight sideways range of a few hundred pips, USD/JPY may have found a volatility catalyst in the Moritomo scandal that has recently resurfaced. Nikkei News Asia said it best, and most succinctly when they said, “The revived scandal threatens Prime Minister Abe's grip on power."

Either way, the USD/JPY downtrend remains entrenched below on closes below 107.095 (spot at 106.43), and institutions are looking for the broadening potential that USD/JPY could retest 100 if the scandal erupts.

Understanding Moritomo, and its potential Impact

Typically, scrubbing names from official documents of high ranking officials is a bad sign. Recently, Japan’s government released confirmation that scrubbing the names of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife, Akie along with Finance Minister Taro Aso had taken place around a land scandal that is said to benefit Shinzo Abe’s wife.

While Aso is blaming the subordinate who made the scrubbing known, the focus of markets is on Shinzo Abe’s statement that he’d resign if any link surfaced linking him or his wife over the disgraced property deal offering heavy discounts on public land to ultra-nationalists.

The JPY has yet to break the March range of 105.25-107.20. However, news that Abe’s key minister, Aso will skip the G20 meeting and further developments on the Moritomo Gakuen, the educational foundation with supposed nationalist agenda could cause the monthly low to break. The break would likely happen quick if Abe’s political future based on his promise last February were likely to be exercised ending his bid to become Japan’s longest running Prime Minister.

USD/JPY Rate Forecast Looks to Ichimoku for Downside Bias Below 107.095

Please add a description for the image.

Chart created by Tyler Yell, CMT. Tweet @ForexYell for comments, questions

On the price chart with the Ichimoku Cloud technical study applied alongside a 2 sigma channel dating back to December 2016. Per Ichimoku, trader can see that the price has traded below the cloud (seen as broad resistance in a downtrend), and the Kijun-Sen or 26-period midpoint since January 10 when the price broke below 112.50 and traded to as low as 105.20 in early March.

105.25 was the closing high in October 2016 before the Trump Election kicked USD/JPY higher to 118.66 by mid-December, less than two months later. Per Ichimoku, the lagging line remains below price from 26-periods ago favoring bearish momentum remains in play.

The spot rate is trading at 106.40, but they key resistance to keep in mind would be the 26-period midpoint at 107.095. A break, and close, above 107.095 may show a broader shift is in play, but until then, the momentum favors keeping sights set toward the 100% extension lower at 104.20, followed by the September 2016 low at 100.

Unlock our Q1 forecast to learn what will drive trends for the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar!

Insights Derived From IG UK Retail Positioning Data

USD/JPY Rate Forecast: Tight March Range May Have Found Catalyst

USD/JPY Insight from IG UK Client Positioning

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.


Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Analyst & Trading Instructor for DailyFX.com

To receive Tyler's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.