We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are the Market cycles? How are #currencies impacted in these cycles? How can these cycles impact #forextrading patterns? Find out here: https://t.co/ckr2fUOWqW https://t.co/g7iT8bpi7f
  • What are a few of the common trading mistakes made by traders? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/d3OFc4yGao #tradingstyle https://t.co/wQ1MAkOb0n
  • The UK population voted the Conservative government back in with a strong majority, giving PM Johnson the backing to push Brexit through. And Sterling (GBP) likes it. Get you $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/tjCHWDxoWm https://t.co/Z7Vaadxy5r
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your $gld markets news from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 https://t.co/zF4EyLIRWM
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/tcjkQnaBWl
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/bDXG2dV3wG
  • The US Dollar technical outlook against the Euro, British Pound, Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar are discussed. Large wicks left signs of indecision, will reversals follow? $EURUSD $GBPUSD $AUDUSD $NZDUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/15/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-EURUSD-GBPUSD-AUDUSD-NZDUSD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/dpuIppxo3F
  • What are some trading mistakes @nickcawley1 made during his career and what did he learn from them? Find out: https://t.co/y3cckNW22W https://t.co/vUQyVl6b0e
  • Growth linked currencies have gained as investors hope for progress on the trade front as well as stimulus from the Fed. The global economy however remains depressed and seems likely to remain so. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/jt1HH9AHLM https://t.co/Yz65AMJYlm
  • RT @YuanTalks: #China temporarily suspend additional tariffs of either 10% or 5% on some #US goods scheduled to take effect on Dec 15, said…
French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

2017-04-17 16:50:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Will Yields Continue To Drive JPY in 2Q? See our forecast to find out what’s driving the biggest market trends!

Talking Points:

Never Miss The Top FX Story, Key Charts, and Driving Events Of Tomorrow’s Trade With My New Webinar

USD/JPY is working on its first close below the 200-DMA since the US Election outcome was announced on November 9. JPY remains the strongest currency in G10 with EUR the current weakest followed by USD, due to the few other currencies having a persistent supportive environment for currency strength. On Friday, the market got news of a soft Consumer Price Index that underperformed on both core and headline measures alongside Retail Sales.

In addition to Friday’s soft US data, we have Sunday’s first-round of the French election adding to a favorable environment for USD/JPY shorts. If the polls continue to show momentum for Mélenchon and Le Pen, we could continue to see the JPY strengthen as the options market continues to show traders buying puts on JPY crosses as protection. Such action in the options market also favors spot-exposed traders exiting their trades until the waters become less choppy. However, depending on who battles in the anticipated run-off for French President on May 7, we could continue to finish the month of April and the open of May.

Many traders are rightfully focused on the possible run-off between the surprising rise of Mélenchon to challenge La Pen and the outstanding favorite, Macron. A Macron win would likely be least favorable for JPY longs and most favorable for USD/JPY longs given that the market sees Macron as the least likely to stir concern about France abandoning the Euro.

Looking at the chart, a trader would be well served to keep an eye on IG trader sentiment (discussed below) and the 200-DMA as possible new resistance. If the price remains below the 200-DMA and the IG Trader Sentiment holds a bearish signal, we could be on our away to approaching 106.84, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the August-December price range and the close of Nov.10.

Should price reverse higher, and we see the 200-DMA hold as support, which is not anticipated in the current macro background, the appropriate price level to focus on for USD/JPY is the March 27 low of 110.10 followed by the April 4/ 11 high of 110.92. The absence of a close above 110.92 alongside the sentiment picture explained below remaining in its current state since January 9 will keep the bias bearish.

Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here

French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/JPY IG Trader Sentiment

French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the JPY trend? Find out here!

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 71.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.56 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 117.304; price has moved 7.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% higher than yesterday and 11.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.2% higher than yesterday and 4.1% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: Monday, April 17, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

French Elections & Softer US Data Favoring Further JPY Strength

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.