News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.56%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.14%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/slgUxPLCHv
  • The Japanese Yen is attempting to mark a third consecutive weekly advance against the US Dollar with USD/JPY down 0.34% ahead of the New York close on Wednesday. Get your $USDJPY market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/3XJc7NHZGl https://t.co/zoZN5l2FGW
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.27% France 40: 0.23% FTSE 100: 0.05% US 500: -2.83% Wall Street: -2.92% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/tPui0dstvl
  • Gold has slipped a 7-month rising support despite it being a 'risk off' day for the markets (overlay is $SPX). Roles - like the metal representing a haven - are not always linear and dominant https://t.co/hSqu6E9HQv
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN -3.05% #BITCOINCASH +4.24% #ETHEREUM -4.53% #RIPPLE -1.91% #LITECOIN -3.36%
  • Japanese #Yen Outlook: $USDJPY Dives into Key Technical Support Pivot - https://t.co/vzJ2u0MUbS https://t.co/4NE2BirSlY
  • Really glad I’m not the only one who thinks like this https://t.co/kGQ6p4HO61
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.56%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.66%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/kYXsXPuSmJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -1.32% Silver: -3.74% Oil - US Crude: -5.35% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/1IZV4KJruu
  • More weakness in Eurozone economic data coupled with a surge in COVID-19 cases has seen ECB interest rate cut expectations pulled forward, and the odds of surprise action at the October meeting are non-zero. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/JdP6FXyQXF https://t.co/88FWLMNtTu
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

2017-03-28 20:00:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

Correlations ebb and flow. USD/JPY and UST yields are two markets that will go from a mild to strong correlation, and late March has a strong correlation with the two global macro assets. The 20-day rolling correlation of UST 10-Yr Yields and USD/JPY is 0.82, which is quite significant.

For those of you watching yields in the US, you know there has been a move into Treasuries on a one-two punch of the “Bearish Hike” from the Fed who failed to give USD Bulls who had already bought the currency something new to cheer and bring in more buyers. A week after the hike, which had seen yields come off, we saw a failed political push to repeal a prior standing health care act. The market took the failed overhaul to pass by the supermajority as a sign that the market was likely getting ahead of itself in putting faith in the new administration to pass thestimulus to bring about inflation.

This fundamental backdrop that brought lower yields has also brought USD/JPY lower as USD weakens on fewer prospects of more rate hikes than anticipated by the Fed. You can see below the USD is sitting with the rest of the Commodity FX Bloc as the relatively weakest G8 currencies at the end of March.

March 28, 2017, Strong/ Weak Rating (JPY Strong/ CAD Weak)

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

The technical picture aligns nicely (for the bears) with the fundamental picture. In short, we are seeing a clear alliance of a bearish fundamental outlook with lower yields (price moving higher) and higher JPY. The chart pattern that we focused on last time was a bear flag pattern, which is identified from a consolidating pattern that finishes by rejoining the trend, which for 2017 has been lower.

The price target for a bear flag breakdown is a 100% extension of the first move lower from the lower high. Where traders should take note is that the bear flag target (108.400 is a mere 20 pips away from the 200-DMA (108.20). This makes for a nice price target on the downside if you’re a trend follower and a nice stop losslevel if you’re a trader looking to buy USD/JPY before a presumed move higher.

For now, the bias will remain lower with obvious counter-trend moves along the way that are expected to lack follow through. The invalidation of the bearish view would be a move back above the 114 (Daily Ichimoku Cloud).) A move above 114 would argue that the breakdown on the bear-flag did not have the follow through and momentum to carry through, but I would watch UST Yields move above resistance as well as an Intermarket confirmation on such a countertrend development.

Interested in Joining Our Analysts, Instructors, or Strategists For a Free Webinar? Register Here

D1 USD/JPY Chart: USD/JPY Trading Lower On Validated Bear Flag Breakdown

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/JPY Sentiment: Japanese Yen looks set to gain vs. weak USD

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 72% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.57 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jan 09 when USDJPY traded near 116.998; the price has moved 5.7% lower since then. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias. (Emphasis Mine)

---

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels: Tuesday, March 28, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: To Know Yen, Follow Yields For Now

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES