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USD/JPY Falls 200 Pips in the Wake of Weak NFP

USD/JPY Falls 200 Pips in the Wake of Weak NFP

Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Head of Education

Talking Points

-USD/JPY drops on a very weak NFP report

-Price is currently near support at 106.80

-Use the Grid Sight Indicator to pin point shifts in intraday momentum

USD/JPY continued its losing ways today on the heels of a much weaker than expected Non-Farm Payroll release. As rate rise expectations plummet for the Fed, USD/JPY continues its distribution and movement lower. Using the Grid Sight Indicator (GSI), we can pinpoint some intraday entries for shorter term trading.

From a technical perspective, USDJPY has several things working against it at the moment which suggest more weakness ahead.

First, On Balance Volume (OBV) is pressing new lows below the previous swing low found in early May. This suggests the participation in this downside move is heavy. In studying the OBV, the last 5 days have wiped out the previous 16 days of gains. OBV has led a breakout lower while price is wobbling on the 78.6% retracement level.

Secondly, retail trader positioning (measured through the Speculative Sentiment Index – SSI) shows bulls are lining up as USDJPY has fallen. This actually provides additional weight for bears as SSI is a contrarian tool. If the current support level near 106.80 can’t hold, the next level is down near 105.60.

Therefore, if we follow the GridSight Indicator in conjunction with SSI, we can determine if these support levels are holding or going to give way.

For those that are unfamiliar, GridSight is a powerful big data indicator that can give you a look at the market by analyzing millions of historical prices in real time. By seeking out similar patterns, GSI helps you use that data to trade important levels coming up.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, DailyFX Education

Having a method to time trade entries is important. Managing your risk may be even more important. Learn how the better performing traders manage their risk by reviewing our Traits of Successful Traders research. [Free registration required.]

Follow me on twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.