News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -0.17% Gold: -1.41% Silver: -2.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fWiTAhHE5X
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.99%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 65.01%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/jxZYSBpAt4
  • Article and webinar recording can be found here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/03/Dow-Jones--Nasdaq-100-Forecasts-for-the-Week-Ahead.html?ref-author=phanks&QPID=917701&CHID=9
  • Indices Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.01% US 500: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.42% Germany 30: -0.43% France 40: -0.49% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/hHbUxemSVz
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmIoVZv https://t.co/MR33o8KmJM
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/NNR3IO1gZ7
  • $NDX extends intraday losses as fears over rising yields continue to haunt high-flying equities https://t.co/RswgSX3Rk6
  • Commodities Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.16% Gold: -1.47% Silver: -2.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/GVZ4EpYejd
  • This smells like a head-and-shoulders pattern from the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) but we don't see the same picture from the S&P 500, Dow or Russell 2000 https://t.co/GekQLeiCEg
  • Lot's of things down today, but know what isn't? Yup, longer-term #Treasury yields An average of the 10Y and 30Y having best day in about a week = portfolio rebalancing play still front and center Fed's Evans expressed little concern about yields https://t.co/tmqCSHTnIG https://t.co/MqUumhMNxI
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

To See How FXCM’s Live Clients Are Positioned In FX & Equities Click Here Now

Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Breakout Higher Turns Focus on Long Exposure
  • JPY Remains Strongest G10 Currency. JPY Bearish Sentiment at Caution
  • US Dollar Rebound Shows Bearish Sentiment May Have Gone Too Far

Unevenly Distributed Dollar Strength Has JPY Weakness In Question

To open the week, US Dollar has strengthened by ~1.25 against the JPY and from the opening range low of May, USD/JPY has moved higher by ~2.8%. Monday’s move brought USD/JPY to its highest levels since April 28, when the BoJ failed to announce additional easing. However, since late April, we’ve seen a few developments worth noting.

First, the US Dollar just capped off its best week since November on a combination of oversold sentiment unwinding and recent comments from BoJ member Taro Aso, who said they’re keeping an eye current JPY strength. Many have discounted the short-term risk of BoJ intervention ahead of the G-7 Summit later this month that Japan is hosting.

Compete to Win Cash Prizes With Your FXCM Mini Account, Click Here For More Info

While the underlying environment is altogether different than in October/ November 2014 when the BoJ doubled their QQE program, many traders understandably are wondering if we are now bouncing off the ~105 level that has been a long-term pivot. In December 2013 & October 2014, the 105 handle was a sticking point that leads to large moves. If the US Dollar can gain a respectable and consistent bid

A Sustained Break Above 108 Could Open a Retest of the 55-DMA near 111:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

Key Technical Levels:

USD/JPY saw such a sharp drop after the “no-decision” by the BoJ at the end of April, and now the range of key support and resistance is set rather wide. The April 28 high of 111.88 and the 55-DMA near 111 make up rather strong resistance. Additionally, those levels align for a key lower high level that if broken could indicate a strong move higher toward the key pivot of H2 2015 & Q1 2016 near 115/6.

Support is equally thin above the May 3 low of 115.54. Given today’s strong move, the open/ low at 107.03 would be the first and most appropriate level of short-term support followed by Friday’s low of 106.42. Given the strong trend lower as shown via the two price channels with negative slopes, the burden of proof remains on the bulls, and only key breaks above long-term resistance will start to favor their argument. While I’m favoring the upside on the risk of “Yen-tervention”, a break back below support will put me back on the sidelines and look for other pockets of US Dollar weakness to play.

USD/JPY SentimentShould Be on Watch As Longs Back Off Fighting The Trend

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

As of mid-day Monday, the ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.13, as 68% of traders are long. Long positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 19.2% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 8.8% higher than yesterday and 11.6% above levels seen last week. We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the USDJPY may continue lower.

Shorter-Term USD/JPY Technical Levels

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Has It Bottomed?

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES